Former President Donald Trump is traveling to North Carolina Friday for a rally at Wilmington International Airport. The visit is intended to give a boost to Ted Budd’s campaign for U.S. Senate and the rest of the “North Carolina Trump Ticket,” according to a news release from Trump.
The rally comes less than seven weeks until the Nov. 8 midterm elections. Two of the top candidates on that Trump Ticket, Budd and Bo Hines in the 13th Congressional District, are locked in tight races.
Being associated this closely with the former president could be a risk for candidates in close races, some political watchers say.
Trump endorsed both Budd and Hines in the Republican primaries, likely helping them secure the nominations. But the primaries were about appealing to the party base. Winning the General Election will require more than that.
The former president’s last visit to North Carolina was in April, when he visited Selma, in Johnston County, about a month before the primaries. Budd and Hines were at that rally too, in the heart of the new 13th District where Hines won a crowded, competitive Republican primary against two well-known Republicans.
Trump is facing increasing legal pressure on several fronts, including a new lawsuit in New York accusing him of fraud, the continuing investigation into classified documents seized from Mar-a-Lago, and the Jan. 6 committee looking into the attack on the U.S. Capitol.
“A lot of Republicans would rather run on Biden’s and the Democrats’ record than make it about Trump,” said N.C. State University political science professor Andrew Taylor. “His appearance focuses people’s attention on him, so that could clearly be a negative.”
The question is whether Trump will help or hurt candidates like Hines and Budd.
“In some ways it’s the hottest question in American politics: How much does Trump still matter? And how much does his message still resonate?” said Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University and a close watcher of North Carolina politics.
“Trump is going to help you with a segment of the electorate, going to hurt you with a segment of the electorate. I think the 13th is a district where maybe it will hurt more than it will help,” he said.
Cooper said that at this point before an election, campaigns should be working on making sure their base gets out to vote and trying to persuade any undecided voters out there.
“In a state as tight as North Carolina and in a district as tight as the 13th or the U.S. Senate race, it’s got to be about mobilization and about persuasion, about getting those unaffiliated voters and turning out all of your people,” Cooper said.
“It’s a delicate dance,” he said, especially with a figure as divisive as Trump.
The 13th District, which includes Cary, southern Wake County, Johnston County and part of Wayne County, is shaping up to be the most competitive race in North Carolina. The race between 26-year-old Hines and Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel is one many seen as a test of Trump’s influence, even if Hines has tried somewhat to distance himself from the former president.
That district also has some of the fastest growing census areas in the state, with booming suburbs outside Raleigh.
“Those suburban voters in southern Wake are exactly the kinds of people that are more likely to be turned off by a Trump message. To whatever degree there are undecided voters, that’s where they live,” Cooper said.
Another risk for the GOP, Taylor said, is the rally could give Democrats ammunition to attack the GOP candidates, along with fresh photos and video to use in advertisements associating Budd and Hines with Trump.
Rep. David Rouzer, who is running for reelection in the 7th Congressional District in the southeastern corner of the state, will also be speaking at the rally.
“I am proud to be speaking at President Trump's rally tomorrow along with other like-minded conservatives such as Ted Budd and Bo Hines. We stand together in support of our shared conservative values and President Trump's strong America-First agenda,” Rouzer said in an email to supporters Thursday.
As an incumbent Republican in a solidly red district, Rouzer doesn’t have the risks that Hines has with swing voters.
Rouzer’s email, sent a day before the rally, encouraged his supporters to RSVP for the event Friday evening. That leads to the other unanswered question: How many people will actually show up for a political rally on a Friday night?
The attendance at some recent Trump rallies “hasn’t been that great,” Taylor said.
To look at Budd, Hines and 1st District Republican candidate Sandy Smith, Trump’s endorsement did carry weight in the primary.
“One of the interesting effects of the election will be, how well did Trump-endorsed Republican candidates do in the general compared to candidates Trump didn’t endorse,” Taylor said.