When former President Donald Trump takes the stage in Selma, North Carolina, Saturday, he will be joined by some of the most controversial members of the state’s Republican Party.
That includes Rep. Madison Cawthorn, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and political newcomer Bo Hines, who is running in the 13th Congressional District, which includes Selma and much of Johnston County.
The former president has endorsed both Cawthorn and Hines in their congressional races, pitting his candidates against more traditional Republicans in the two districts. Trump has also endorsed Rep. Ted Budd in the Senate primary, where Budd appears to have a strong lead over former Gov. Pat McCrory.
“There are clearly strong supporters still of former President Trump in the Republican Party in the state. There are, becoming increasingly vocal I think, opponents of Trump,” said Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at N.C. State University.
These primaries where Trump has put his name behind candidates will help show which wing of the party is stronger in North Carolina, Taylor said.
Trump has held several rallies around the country in recent months, giving support to his favored candidates ahead of the primaries. He was in Florence, South Carolina, less than a month ago.
“This will also be able to tell us a lot about Trump’s standing nationally as a potential nominee in 2024,” Taylor said. If Trump’s candidates do not do well in the May 17 primaries, that could give fuel to the more establishment members of the party to move the GOP away from Trump before the 2024 elections.
“North Carolina is a really important proxy for this general conflict that’s going on in the national Republican Party,” Taylor said.
Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, said Trump’s visit and endorsements say a lot about the state of the GOP right now.
“It says that North Carolina is critical to Trump’s potential chances in the future. It says that our Senate race is among the most important if not the most important in the country. It says Donald Trump still holds a lot of sway within the Republican Party,” he said.
“The Republican Party, like a lot of parties over history, does have some division. There really is a Donald Trump wing, an America first wing, a MAGA wing, whichever term you want to use. And there is an establishment wing of the Republican Party, more of an old-school George W. Bush wing,” Cooper said.
“We’re seeing that stark contrast play out in Selma on Saturday,” he said.
Getting good polling numbers in party primaries is difficult, both Cooper and Taylor said. But both agreed that Budd appears to be in the lead for the GOP’s Senate nomination.
If Budd does win the primary, he would face presumptive Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley, a former justice on the N.C. Supreme Court, in the general election in November.
The numbers for the congressional primaries are even harder to know.
The 11th Congressional District includes Asheville and the western corner of North Carolina. It’s a strong Republican area and the next Congress member for the district will likely be decided in the GOP primary.
Rep. Madison Cawthorn, the youngest member of Congress, has proved to be a lightning rod in North Carolina and on Capitol Hill. Since his start, Cawthorn has modeled himself as a staunch Trump loyalist and voted to reject the election of President Joe Biden last year.
He’s continued to court controversy ever since, most recently making comments about the personal lives of other members of Congress, and getting pulled over several times for speeding and being charged with driving without a license.
Cawthorn is facing stiff competition in the Republican primary.
Sen. Thom Tillis recently endorsed state Sen. Chuck Edwards, who is challenging Cawthorn for the nomination.
“Unfortunately, Madison Cawthorn has fallen well short of the most basic standards Western North Carolina expects from their representatives, and voters now have several well-qualified candidates to choose from who would be a significant improvement. I believe Chuck Edwards is the best choice,” Tillis said in his endorsement.
Edwards represents parts of Buncombe, Henderson and Transylvania counties in the state Senate. He’s been in the state Senate for three terms and has attracted support from many in the traditional wing of the Republican Party.
“Patience does wear thin after a while, we saw that with Tillis,” WCU's Cooper said. “Essentially all of the power brokers in North Carolina politics seem to have lined up for Chuck Edwards.”
There are several other candidates vying for the nomination in the 11th, including Michele Woodhouse, who is also running under an “America first” banner.
Cooper said all these primary challengers were really a “self-inflicted wound” for Cawthorn, who had publicly considered running for a different district late last year. If Cawthorn hadn’t said he would run in a different district, he probably would not have the kind of strong primary challengers he’s facing today, Cooper said.
There is no incumbent for the 13th Congressional District, which leaves an open field for both parties. The district includes Johnston County and parts of Wake, Wayne and Harnett counties.
The Trump rally Saturday will be in Selma, in the heart of the 13th District.
Trump endorsed Bo Hines in the Republican primary for the district. Hines, a 26-year-old political newcomer from Winston-Salem, has said he is in the process of moving to the district with just weeks to go until early voting begins April 28.
There are other more established Republicans running for the nomination, including former Congresswoman Renee Ellmers and Kelly Daughtry, daughter of longtime state legislator Leo Daughtry.
“That’s going to be a tough primary for Hines,” said N.C. State’s Taylor, who pointed out that Hines once played football for the Wolfpack.
The split in the Republican Party will be on full display in Johnston County on Saturday. But it remains to be seen if Trump’s endorsements will put Hines or Cawthorn over the edge to win their party’s nominations for the two congressional seats.
No matter who wins in the primaries, 2022 should be a good year for Republicans, Taylor said. Opposition parties tend to do well in midterm elections, he said.
“Republicans are particularly revved up this year,” he said. And once the ballots are counted after North Carolina's May 17 primaries, all political attention will turn to November, when voters will decide the balance of power in the U.S. House and Senate.