If the political scientists and campaign number-crunchers are right, there will be few surprises in the congressional campaigns in Charlotte and the surrounding areas.
The political lines are very different this time after months of political and legal wrangling over redistricting the congressional districts. But despite the new districts, there are a number of familiar faces on the ballot for the May 17 primary.
Because of the way the maps are drawn, with heavily Democratic and Republican tickets, the races in the Charlotte region will be all but settled in the primaries. Anything in politics can happen, but historic voting patterns show strong majorities for one party or the other in the four Charlotte-area congressional races.
The new maps split Mecklenburg County into two districts: the 12th, which includes the northeast half of Mecklenburg and part of Cabarrus, and the 14th, with the southwest part of the county and part of Gaston County.
“By all accounts they should be fairly safe Democratic seats,” Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer said.
Longtime Democratic Charlotte Rep. Alma Adams is running for re-election in the 12th Congressional District. She has one challenger on the Democratic ticket, John Sharkey. But analysts say Adams’ reputation and name recognition in the district should make it a safe race for her.
Three Republicans have lined up for the GOP nomination in the 12th: Andrew Huffman, Nalini Joseph and Tyler Lee.
The situation is a little different in the 14th Congressional District, where there is no incumbent.
State Sen. Jeff Jackson has emerged as the front-runner on the Democratic ticket. He will face Ram Mammadov in the primary.
“This was not a district made for Jeff Jackson, but it’s hard for me to understand how one could look better for Jeff Jackson,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
Jackson initially planned to run for Richard Burr’s open U.S. Senate seat, but stepped out of that race as the party got behind Cheri Beasley’s Senate campaign.
Two Republicans are running for the 14th, Pat Harrigan and Jonathan Simpson. But Cooper said the district votes about 56% Democratic.
“It would be a national headline if somehow a Republican were able to win this in the general,” he said.
The districts surrounding Charlotte look nothing like they did for the 2020 elections. The new map has two heavily Republican districts around Mecklenburg County.
The 10th Congressional District includes much of the foothills and into the mountains west of Charlotte. The 8th Congressional District curves around covering the counties to the east.
There are no primaries for Congress in the 8th District this year. Incumbent Republican Dan Bishop will face Democrat Scott Huffman in the General Election in November. But the seat should be safe for Bishop.
“This is an overwhelmingly Republican district. This is a district that voted about 66% with Republican candidates on average,” Cooper said.
On the other side of Charlotte, the 10th Congressional District is another heavily Republican district with a well-known incumbent.
Rep. Patrick McHenry has represented this part of the state in Congress since 2005. He is facing four other Republicans for the primary: Jeff Gregory, Michael Magnotta, Gary Robinson and Richard Speer.
“I’m a little surprised at the size of the Republican field,” Cooper said, noting that McHenry has a good reputation in the Republican primary among both the establishment members of the GOP and the new “America First” movement in the Trump wing of the party.
He also serves as Republican leader on the House Financial Services Committee.
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“That is going to be a safe Republican seat for Patrick McHenry,” said Bitzer. “He’s given them no reason to have a challenge.”
And his leadership role could grow if Republicans win back a majority in the House of Representatives, he said.
Rep. Madison Cawthorn had considered a run in the 10th Congressional District but changed course and decided to run for reelection in the 11th District, covering the western corner of North Carolina.
“He’s got formal power, he’s not the kind of person who fights for the sake of fighting. But I think the fact that Madison Cawthorn decided not to run the 10th tells you all you needed to know about Patrick McHenry’s power,” Cooper said.