AUSTIN, Texas — The first test of how the Supreme Court’s leaked abortion draft opinion could affect the midterms is likely weeks away in Texas, where U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, one of the last anti-abortion Democrats in Congress, is in a runoff later this month against abortion rights proponent Jessica Cisneros.

Abortion rights groups for months have poured money and staff on the ground into the South Texas district. On Tuesday, they looked at the race with new urgency.

But they also acknowledged they’ve been down this road before: dire warnings that Roe was in jeopardy, fueling massive voter mobilization efforts but still not changing the balance of power on the courts or in statehouses. What’ll be different next time is a question that gnaws at even their most faithful.

“It’s been really hard to organize around it, to be candid,” said Mini Timmaraju, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America. “Sometimes you need that extra push. And unfortunately, as horrific as this is, this is probably it.”

Alexis McGill Johnson, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Federation of America, said a month ago that her group’s internal polling showed a “believability gap” that people did not think the Supreme Court would overturn Roe. She said Wednesday that the leaked opinion could close those numbers.

“That frustration and rage, and coupled with the incredible grassroots organizing that is happening, particularly among communities of color, reproductive justice organizations, will be the time that really transforms this midterm,” she said.