Extreme heat and moderate-to-severe drought may negatively affect the foliage season for some this upcoming fall.


What You Need To Know

  • It has been one of the hottest summers on record for parts of NYS

  • Most of the state has seen well below average rainfall the past few months
  • Prolonged heat and drought put stress on trees and leaves

  • Foliage for some may be muted and short-lived this fall

We're on the cusp of Labor Day weekend, which for many signifies the end of summer and start of fall. I LOVE me some fall here in Upstate N.Y., but I'll never understand people who wish away summer early.

For me, it's easy to ignore the pumpkin spiced beverages and Halloween candy shoved in our faces way too early. However, one thing that gets me is seeing leaves change. Believe it or not, this has begun in parts of the Adirondacks!

Siamese Ponds Wilderness on Aug. 24, 2022. (Photo by Katie Rhodes)

It seems a little early doesn't it? I thought the same thing. The first picture of leaves changing I received last fall was in the first week of September.

Each foliage season differs from the last here in NYS. Some come in sooner rather than later. Some are quite bright, while others aren't as spectacular, and some feature more red leaves and others more yellow and orange ones.

There are several weather factors that come into play, and the weather over the next several weeks will influence how the leaves look this upcoming fall. First, let's dive in to how this summer's weather may affect this fall's foliage.

Rain has been scarce this summer for many, with most of the state running at a solid deficit. While the map above doesn't account for the soaking rainfall that many saw on Tuesday, most are still running well below average. 

Along with the lack of rainfall, it's been one of the hottest summers on record for areas in Eastern N.Y. with several heat waves this summer.

The combination of persistent drought for some and extreme heat may lead to less vibrant colors or trees dropping leaves early in these areas of NYS.

We expect La Niña to continue through the fall, which typically brings warmer, wetter-than-average weather to Upstate N.Y.

La Niña falls can bring a more active jet stream to the Northeast. This could mean more cold fronts, leading to clearer, colder fall nights. Warm days followed by chilly fall nights are an excellent combination for vibrant color.

So if you're a leaf peeper like me, let's hope for a bit more rain than we've seen of late and some crisp, chilly fall nights in the weeks to come. If you see some early color this holiday weekend, I'd love to see it. Share it on the Spectrum News app!

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