My what a difference a week makes.
The Bills win and the Dolphins collapse, opening the door for another path to make the playoffs.
Winning the AFC East.
This final four game stretch is marked by two tough opponents and two seemingly easier games, with my belief remaining that the Bills must go 3-1 to reach the postseason again.
This all begins Sunday afternoon against the toughest test to go, the Cowboys.
Beyond San Francisco, Dallas might have the strongest case to be called the NFL’s best team.
Dak Prescott is firmly in the MVP conversation.
Micah Parsons is absolutely in the Defensive Player of the Year mix.
And there’s loads of talent beyond that.
Of course, Josh Allen and Co. have played better since the change to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator while the defense continues to overcome injuries and hold firm.
Let’s get into what’s on tap this weekend in Orchard Park.
Offensive Explosion
Like Sean McDermott, Mike McCarthy taking matters into his own hands this season – grabbing the play-calling duties for the Cowboys offense.
They entered week 15 ranked tops in the NFL in points per game at 32.4
Dallas also best in the league in 1st downs (23.4 per game) and 3rd downs (49.17%).
They’re 4th in total yards per game at 381.5.
Five times this season McCarthy’s unit has scored 40+ -- including 3 of their last 5 games.
The Cowboys have put up 30+ in 9 of their 13 games.
This as the cast remains pretty much the same from what Kellen Moore had at his disposal as Dallas OC the previous four seasons.
Prescott ranks top 5 in the NFL in completion percentage (69.3% - 4th), passing yards (3,505 – 4th), touchdown passes (28 – 1st), and QB rating (107.5 – 2nd).
CeeDee Lamb is having another elite season, now adding Brandin Cooks to the mix with Michael Gallup and standout rookie tight end Jake Ferguson.
Tony Pollard has risen to the top RB spot with the departure of Ezekiel Elliott, 8th in the NFL with 796 yards, but only averaging 4 yards per carry.
This Bills defense is about middle of the pack in yards allowed per game (321.9 – 14th), but continue to keep points off the board with the best (18.8 – 6th).
With A.J. Epenesa and Micah Hyde already ruled out, it’ll be another tall order for McDermott to roll in back-ups against a high-powered unit.
Silence of the Lamb
Lamb is one of the NFL’s very best wide receivers.
He’s 3rd in the NFL this season in receptions (96) and receiving yards (1,253), while entering week 15 tied for 4th in TD catches for 8.
Lamb’s eclipsed 100+ receiving yards in 6 games this season, grabbing 10+ catches in 5 games.
He’s also caught a TD in 5-straight games.
What’s interesting is the Bills have actually done a pretty good job limiting team’s best WRs this season.
Tyreek Hill’s tops in the NFL in receiving yards and A.J. Brown’s 2nd.
Hill had 3 catches for 58 yards against the Bills, Brown 5 grabs for 37 yards and TD.
Other notables against the Bills are Davante Adams (6 for 84 and a TD), Terry McLaurin (6 for 41), Mike Evans (3 for 39 and a TD), and Courtland Sutton (8 for 53 and a TD).
Only Calvin Ridley went over 100+ again them.
One thing to counter this is in some instances, teams with a strong #2 option leaned on that player.
While Jaylen Waddle (4 for 46) and Chris Godwin (5 for 54 and TD) were also held in check well, Tee Higgins (8 for 110) and DeVonta Smith (7 for 106 and a TD) picked up the slack in a big way.
Rasul Douglas said this week he continues to feel more comfortable each game he’s with the Bills and Christian Benford continues to be strong on the other side.
I think the loss of Hyde will be felt the most, likely inserting Taylor Rapp into the starting line-up again in his place with Cam Lewis sliding in when the Bills go into their 3 safety look on passing downs.
While Lamb will be the focus, be aware of what might open up for Cooks and Ferguson.
Parsons is a Different Problem
A story interim OC Joe Brady told earlier this week I think perfectly describes what makes Micah Parson such a transcendent player.
Brady remembers when he was a grad assistant at Penn State that Parsons asked to play wide receiver during a camp.
According to Brady, the 6’3” and 245 pound pass rusher was the best WR on the field for the Nittany Lions.
Keep in mind, future 1st round picks Jahan Dotson and 2nd round pick K.J. Hamler were at PSU at this time.
(And Bills rookie WR Justin Shorter)
Of course Parsons is a defensive monster now and is having the best season of a pro career that’s already earned 1st team All-Pro honors each of his first two years.
He’s at 12.5 sacks, registering at least one in 9 of the Cowboys 13 games.
As Mitch Morse indicated this week, Parsons literally lines up all over the Dallas defense – and is incredibly disruptive and impactful at every spot.
One thing going for the Bills is their offensive line is a rare group that’s avoided injuries this season, with all five starters playing together every game this year.
That includes Connor McGovern, who is in his first season with the Bills after four with the Cowboys.
McGovern obviously familiar with Parsons and the rest of the D and is bestowing any and all knowledge he can to not only his OL mates, but the rest of the offense.
Still, as even McGovern admitted, you can know all there is to know and a talent the level of Parsons can still win – big.
Get Diggs Going
Stefon Diggs is still every bit the top tier WR he’s been the entirety of his Bills career.
He was taking things to a new level early this season, coming out the gate with 49 receptions for 620 yards and 5 TDs the first 6 games.
However, things have slowed down for Diggs, with 38 grabs for 373 yards and 3 TDs over the last 7 games.
He hasn’t gone for 100+ since week 6 against the Giants.
The targets are there, 66 over those 7 games, but his catch percentage just 57.6%.
Compare that to 74.2% during that hot early stretch.
Getting Diggs back to the level he should be at needs to be a priority for the Bills Sunday and moving forward.
We expected this to be a brotherly battle, with Stefon going against brother Trevon, but the younger Diggs unfortunately suffered a season-ending injury earlier this year.
In his place has been Daron Bland, who casually leads the NFL with 8 interceptions, 6 of which he’s returned for a TD.
Opposite Bland is former Bill Stephon Gilmore, who appears to be back to playing at a higher level than recent years.
We’ve seen Diggs win regardless of who guards him, so despite the caliber and success of Bland and Gilmore, that shouldn’t deter the Bills from feeding their top target.
On the Line
BUF (-2)
O/U: 50
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 256.5
Dak Prescott O/U Passing Yards: 273.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 67.5
CeeDee Lamb O/U Receiving Yards: 83.5
Injury Report
DALLAS
OUT: DT Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle)
QUESTIONABLE: WR Brandin Cooks (illness), DE Viliami Fehoko (knee), CB Stephon Gilmore (illness), S Malik Hooker (ankle), WR Jalen Tolbert (illness), T Matt Waletzko (shoulder)
BUFFALO
OUT: DE A.J. Epenesa (ribs), S Micah Hyde (neck stinger)
QUESTIONABLE: WR Justin Shorter (hamstring), CB Kaiir Elam (ankle)
Bills and Cowboys kick things off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park Sunday afternoon at 4:25 p.m.