It all comes down to this.
As Spencer Brown said this week, we all had a feeling this week 18 game between the Bills and Dolphins would be big, but not sure we expected the stakes to be this high.
The winner takes the AFC East, a division the Bills have won the last three seasons.
It seemed a foregone conclusion about four weeks ago a four-peat wasn’t going to happen, but four-straight wins by the reigning division champs paired with a few Miami losses has the throne up for grabs again.
This all-or-nothing feeling has been with the Bills the last month, so while they fully understand the playoff scenarios, this team’s simply looking to keep control in their own hands as they’ve done since the bye week – win and in.
Oh, and the last time the Bills were at Hard Rock Stadium the final week of the regular season with their playoff hopes in the balance was 2017.
I think we know what happened that afternoon.
Plenty of layers to this match-up, so let’s dive into what’s on tap Sunday night.
Playoff Scenarios
The winner of this game will be the AFC East champions and earn the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs.
While Miami has already clinched a playoff berth regardless of Sunday night’s outcome, the same can’t be said for the Bills.
The first game of importance is Saturday afternoon when the Steelers travel to face the Ravens.
Baltimore’s resting starters after already locking up the top seed in the AFC, which includes MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson.
A Steelers loss and the Bills are in the playoffs even with a loss to the Dolphins.
A Steelers win and focus shifts to Jacksonville traveling to Tennessee for a Sunday 1pm game.
A Jaguars loss and the Bills are in.
Jacksonville and Pittsburgh wins would put the Bills in a must-win situation Sunday night or they’d miss the playoffs.
Wounded Dolphins
The Bills certainly have had to navigate a slew of injuries to key players throughout this season, but it’s the Dolphins who are really limping to the finish line.
CB Xavien Howard’s already been ruled out for Sunday night’s game.
Star pass-rusher Bradley Chubb tore his ACL late in last weekend’s game against Baltimore, ending his season.
They’re already without young up-and-coming pass rusher Jaelan Phillips, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury just over a month ago.
Starting linebacker Jerome Baker is questionable as he’s trying to return from a knee injury that’s had him on injured reserve.
On offense, RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle are questionable after each missing the last game.
Clearly this Miami team won’t be at full strength, but the Bills have shown an ability to overcome big losses with elevated play by back-ups.
We’ll see if the Dolphins are up to the task.
Allen Squishes the Fish
Josh Allen owns the Dolphins.
He’s 10-2 in his career against Miami (including playoffs), with the two losses just one slightly underthrown heave to Charles Clay in 2018 and a slightly better pass to Isaiah McKenzie in 2022 away from being wins.
In five of his 11 regular season games against MIA, Allen has been named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
In all 12 games he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes, totaling 34 passing TDs against Miami (most by any QB in the NFL against a single opponent since 2018) – adding another five rushing.
This all includes arguably Allen’s best game this season, 21/25 for 320 yards and 4 TDs week four against Miami, leading to a perfect 158.3 QB rating.
We’ll see if history can get the Bills QB and this passing game on track.
Since a prolific performance again the Eagles, Allen has completed less than 55% of his passes in three of the last four games.
He hasn’t thrown for more than 240 yards since that game in Philadelphia.
Last Sunday Allen failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this season.
He’ll need to be more like the Allen of old for the Bills to hold onto their division crown.
The Bizarre Diggs Situation
I’ll be honest, I don’t have the slightest idea what’s going on with Stefon Diggs.
It’s gone from production being down to now a noticeable drop in his snap count.
Without completely rehashing what I’ve written about in recent weeks, I’ll just once again throw out there that Diggs started the season with 100+ receiving yards in five of the first six games and hasn’t had one since.
It’s starting to appear like Diggs seeing the field less might be due to the Bills wanting to run more, and feeling there are better run-blocking options at WR.
I’m certainly not of the belief taking the player head coach Sean McDermott, interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and Allen all have repeatedly said is their best playmaker off the field regardless of situation.
In the week 4 match-up against Miami, Diggs reeled in six receptions for 120 yards and three touchdowns on seven targets.
In eight overall games against the Dolphins since with the Bills, Diggs has caught at least four catches in each, never seeing less than seven targets.
Yes, Jalen Ramsey wasn’t on the field October 1st and the rest of those games, but it’s not like Diggs hasn’t had success against him too.
In last season’s opening game in Los Angeles, Diggs went for 8 catches for 122 yards and a TD, often times with Ramsey in coverage.
With Howard out for this game, I’ll be curious if Ramsey shadows Diggs.
Either way, he needs to be out of the field and more – and a conscious effort made to get his game back to the level it should be.
Tua-to Tyreek
We understand the Dolphins offense is dynamic largely because of the combination of Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill.
Miami is 8-0 when Hill goes for 100+ receiving yards.
Five of Hill’s six lowest receiving totals this season have come in the Dolphins five losses.
Despite McDermott saying he’s never seen a player like Hill in his 20+ years in the NFL, his defense have quite a good track record against him.
Even dating back to his time in Kansas City, Hill has never had 70 or more receiving yards against the Bills in the regular season.
His two pop-off performances came with the Chiefs in the playoffs.
We certainly understand this doesn’t mean it won’t happen Sunday night, but the Bills are known for limiting big plays and getting beat deep.
They also really were able to produce pressure on Tagovailoa in the first meeting this season, forcing him to hold onto the ball longer than the typical 2.5 seconds or less he thrives in.
Rasul Douglas wasn’t with the Bills then, but the reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week has been red hot since being acquired at the trade deadline and has faced Hill before.
If the defensive front can once again be disruptive (Greg Rousseau 2 sacks, Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones one each vs. MIA week 4), this dynamic QB-WR might be held in check again.
On the Line
BUF (-2.5)
O/U: 48
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 246.4
Tua Tagovailoa O/U Passing Yards: 264.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 61.5
Tyreek Hill O/U Receiving Yards: 92.5
Injury Report
BUF
QUESTIONABLE: C Mitch Morse (illness)
MIA
OUT: DE Bradley Chubb (knee), CB Xavien Howard (foot)
QUESTIONABLE: RB Raheem Moster (knee/ankle), WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle), LB Jerome Baker (knee)
Bills and Dolphins are set to kick things off from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens Sunday night around 8:20pm.