I know I shouldn’t say this, but what weather could possibly come Sunday that the Bills haven’t dealt with during Sean McDermott’s tenure as head coach?
The forecast makes it seem like conditions might be closest to the 2017 snow game against the Colts in terms of accumulation, with totals as of now expected to be in the 12-18 inch range (less than that game years ago).
Wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range would bring us similarly to the Patriots regular season game in 2021.
Temperatures will be in the 20s with wind chills in the teens – warm compared to the Patriots playoff game at home in 2021 or last year’s Christmas Eve game in Chicago.
So while I do expect it to play a factor, let’s not act like we haven’t been here before.
And with that, let’s dive into a wintery wild card match-up.
Allen Against the Elements
The Bills drafted Josh Allen, in part, because he’s built to succeed in all the elements.
While Mac Jones only threw the ball three times in those winds sustaining around 30-35 mph and gusting 40+, Allen let it rip 30 times, completing 15, including a 14-yard TD toss.
That sub-zero playoff game against the Pats, Allen threw as many touchdown passes as he did incompletions (4).
As Sean McDermott said Friday, just because the Bills quarterback has shown the ability to navigate challenging weather conditions doesn’t guarantee he’ll be dialed in Sunday afternoon.
However, it does allow interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady to at least maintain the ability to force Pittsburgh to believe the Bills can roll with a balanced attack.
So regardless of how this winter storm actually plays out, don’t expect the Bills offense to look too much different than it usually does.
Yes, running the football with James Cook and others will be important, but Allen can still drive the ball down the field, with play-action potentially setting up for some big plays.
New-Look Steelers O
There’s been two critical changes that have changed the course of Pittsburgh’s offense down the stretch.
The first was the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada on November 21st.
Eddie Faulkner took over on an interim basis and instantly helped the Steelers O produced their second-most yards in a game – 421 at the Bengals.
Things came back down to earth for a few weeks after that until the second major move – starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
In Rudolph’s three starts to close the regular season, the Steelers scored 34, 30, and 17 in a horrible rain storm in Baltimore.
He’s completed 74.6% of his passes for 716 yards, three TDs and no interceptions.
The biggest beneficiary of Rudolph’s rise has been George Pickens.
Pickens caught 11 passes for 326 yards and two TDs on 15 targets the first two games with Rudolph starting before not seeing a ball go his way in the Baltimore rain last week.
The 2nd year WR is as dynamic as they come – with 22 of his 63 receptions this season going for 20+ yards.
Six of those were 40+.
How exactly effective the passing game with Rudolph and Co. will be will in part be due to the elements as well as a Bills defense that’s allowing only 196.6 passing yards per game through the regular season, including holding their last four opponents under 200.
Physicality the Difference
McDermott and others this week made it a point to emphasize how much they expect Sunday’s game to be the most physical of the season.
We know that’s been Pittsburgh’s brand for decades and that hasn’t changed even with a little aerial boost from Rudolph.
Najee Harris surged through the finish line of the regular season with his two best games of the last two years.
They came as the Steelers fed him 27 and 26 times, resulting in 122 and 112 rushing yards.
We saw the dynamic ability Jaylen Warren has as the other RB, ripping off a 62 yard TD in their preseason meeting against the Bills.
Weather or not, expect the Steelers to lean into their run game until the Bills stop it.
That’s one area McD’s unit has shown some cracks, 15th overall by allowing 110.6 yards per game.
More so, it’s sitting 28th in the regular season by allowing 4.6 rushing yards per attempt.
The struggles were more evident early in the season, but still something to note heading into this one.
Without Watt
A big blow to the Steelers defense is the loss of T.J. Watt, who went down during Pittsburgh’s regular season finale.
Watt led the NFL in sacks with 19.
Add to that 19 tackles for a loss, 36 quarterback hits, 4 forced fumbles, and 3 fumble recoveries and Watt seriously in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year conversation.
There’s still talent beyond Watt that can disrupt things, starting with Alex Highsmith, who had seven sacks and 18 QB hits.
Others include Larry Ogunjobi, Nick Herbig and veteran Cam Heyward.
Then of course in the back end is playmaker Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Bills offense hasn’t been precise down the home stretch, but still found ways to win in the end.
Pittsburgh tied for 8th in the NFL with 27 takeaways while the Bills were in the lower third of the league with 28 giveaways.
In a game where outside factors might come into play, the turnover battle likely will look large.
On the Line
BUF (-9)
O/U: 34
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 207.5
James Cook O/U Rushing Yards: 64.5
Najee Harris O/U Rushing Yards: 58.5
Injury Report
PITTSBURGH
OUT: DE T.J. Watt (knee)
BUFFALO
OUT: WR Gabe Davis (knee), S Taylor Rapp (calf)
QUESTIONABLE: LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder), CB Rasul Douglas (knee)
Bills and Steelers are set to kick off their super wild card game Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium at 1 p.m.
