The Bills are gearing up for their second playoff appearance in three years, but this time is strikingly different than the last.
This team didn't back into the postseason with the help of an Andy Dalton miracle. They earned it with two games to go in the regular season.
Only 11 players remain on the roster from the team that lost the AFC Wild Card matchup in Jacksonville.
Above all, the attitude around the team is different, believing that this is where they were meant to be.
Still, there is not a whole lot of postseason experience among the Bills roster, so it's unknown how they will respond once the tournament begins.
And what we see Saturday afternoon in Houston will tell us about the future of the Bills. It is a true learning experience that can be used as a jumping off point for success to come. The foundation blocks of the franchise are in place and getting their first taste of the path towards finally grabbing the elusive Super Bowl.
Let's see what to look for against the Texans.
Allen's Postseason Debut
Josh Allen has played in 28 games over the first two seasons of his career, sporting a 15-12 record as the Bills starting quarterback. As hoped, Allen improved across the board from year one to year two, with his yards per game, touchdowns, interceptions, completion percentage, and rating all up.
Now Allen will dive into the postseason pool for the first time and, just as I've said since before training camp began, this team will go as far as Allen takes them.
Keep an eye on how he begins the game, where the QB’s openly admitted as recently as after the game in New England that he can get a little too hyped up for big games.
If he can control his emotions, the Texans pass defense can be taken advantage of, ranking 29th in the NFL by allowing 267.3 yards per game.
It also may be a full circle moment of sorts, with Allen returning to Houston where he was knocked out of the game a year ago with an elbow injury that caused him to miss four games. But it's that time away, along with the team's need to bring in veterans Derek Anderson and Matt Barkley, that Allen credits greatly to his large strides forward upon returning at the end of the season. Before leaving with injury, Allen was 10/17 for 84 yards, no TDs or INTs, and was sacked twice.
Adding Major Wattage
J.J. Watt is expected to return to the Texans line-up after being out since week 8 with a torn pectoral muscle. Adding the three-time Defensive Player of the Year is quite the boost for a Houston defense ranked 28th in the NFL by allowing 388.3 yards per game. Of course where Watt will really add is the pass rush, which has lacked in his absence, taking down the quarterback 5.29% of the time, 28th in the league.
**And let's not forget how he can intercept screen passes and return them for touchdowns... cough... EJ Manuel in 2014...**
Of course added to this is the unknown health status of Ty Nsekhe.
Cody Ford has played pretty well since having to hold down the right tackle spot by himself after Nsekhe was carted off with an ankle injury at Miami week 11. Still, any and all help to contain both Watt and Whitney Mercilus is welcomed.
Nothing Elementary, Watson
Deshaun Watson took the slightest of steps back from his second to third season in the NFL, with his yards down and interceptions up. Still, we all know the dynamic playmaker he can be.
That said, we all know how well the Bills defense has done against dynamic playmakers, especially QBs, this season. The first meeting against Tom Brady was one of the worst games of his career (45.9 rating). It was the running game, not Carson Wentz (172 passing yards and TD) that was the undoing against the Eagles. It took Dak Prescott 49 attempts to pad the stats in garbage time. Lamar Jackson's three touchdown tosses make up for just 145 yards in the air.
And look at how things went for Watson a year ago, going 15/25 for 177, a touchdown and two interceptions. More so, Watson was sacked seven times. I know he was a little dinged up and the offensive line has been improved with the addition of Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, but Watson was still sacked 44 times this season, sixth most in the NFL. As a team, the Texans allow a sack at a rate of 9.18% of pass attempts, 27th in the NFL.
Let's see if the Bills cut loose again in the Lone Star state.
Hopkins vs. White
This is the type of matchup made for the platform of playoff football.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Tre'Davious White, fresh off being named a 1st Team All-Pro for the first time in his career.
The two met a year ago, with Hopkins finishing the game with five receptions on six targets, 63 yards and a touchdown.
White didn’t bite when asked about the Instagram post. He did make it seem like he may not actually be shadowing Hopkins Saturday afternoon, something Leslie Frazier wouldn't commit to earlier in the week when I asked.
Either way, the majority of the time we'll see two of the best at their position go man-to-man.
What adds to that as well is the injury to Levi Wallace, who was carted off the field last Sunday with an ankle injury.
If Wallace can't go, that pushes former Texans first-round pick Kevin Johnson into full duty. He's been rotating series with Wallace the back end of the season and playing well.
Hopkins can line-up anywhere from outside to in, so there will be times Johnson and Taron Johnson may be tasked with the duty of trying to contain the elite WR.
Oliver's Homecoming
Ed Oliver loves his hometown of Houston. It's where he was an All-American at Westfield High School and then an All-American at the University of Houston.
Now Oliver will be playing in NRG Stadium for the second time in his football career. The first was his freshman year at UH, where the Cougars upset #3 Oklahoma.
The ninth overall pick has really picked up his play the second half of his rookie season. I found out this week that a big reason is because of a phone conversation Oliver had with his former high school defensive coordinator and college defensive line coach, AJ Blum.
BILLS
QUESTIONABLE: DE Shaq Lawson (hamstring), T Ty Nsekhe (ankle), CB Levi Wallace (ankle), WR Andre Roberts (foot)
TEXANS
QUESTIONABLE: S Jahleel Addae (Achilles’), TE Jordan Akins (hamstring), WR Will Fuller (groin), CB Johnathan Joseph (hamstring), CB Bradley Roby (hamstring)
Bills and Texans meet in the AFC Wild Card round Saturday afternoon inside NRG Stadium at 4:35 EST.
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