NORTH CAROLINA -- With several months to go before Election Day, the new match-up in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district is one to watch. Several national groups that monitor elections label it a “toss up”.

• Dan McCready, a Democrat, will face off against Dan Bishop, a state senator, in a new special election on September 10.
• Bishop launched a new ad attempting to paint McCready as too progressive.
• Experts says 2019 presents new messaging challenges for McCready, who tries to portray himself as a moderate.

Dan McCready, a Democrat, will face off against Dan Bishop, a state senator, in a new special election on September 10. Bishop secured the Republican nomination in last week’s primary.

Inside Elections is one of the groups rating the race a “toss up.” In an interview, Leah Askarinam, a reporter with Inside Elections, noted McCready's performance in last fall's midterm. “Democrats ended up close in a race that should have been a little more difficult,” she said.

In 2016, President Trump won the district by more than 10 points. In the midterm two years later, McCready appeared to come up 905 votes short of Republican Mark Harris (before accusations of election fraud started to swirl).

Of course, things have changed dramatically since the November 2018 midterm. The election fraud investigation lead to a multi-day public hearing and eventually the call for the special election. Amidst the scandal, Harris chose not to run again. That paved the way for a new Republican candidate: Bishop.

The Cook Political Report also rates the race a "toss up," but notes that Bishop winning the primary without needing a runoff certainly helps the Republicans.

While it may just be one race, Askarinam says the new election may offer a hint of things to come beyond the 9th district boundaries.

“It’s also a testing ground for both parties to see what kind of messages may resonate ahead of the much bigger election in 2020, which is yes, the presidential election, but is also House, Senate, and -- in North Carolina -- the governor’s race as well,” Askarinam said.

One of those messages is already flooding the airwaves, after Bishop launched a new ad attempting to paint McCready as too progressive.

“Wrong Dan, he’ll fall right in line with his friends. Socialists, radicals, they hate the values that make America great,” Bishop says in the ad, as images of New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and others appear on screen.

Askarinam says 2019 presents new messaging challenges for McCready, who tries to portray himself as a moderate. He will undoubtedly be asked about the Green New Deal and abortion rights, topics and ideas that were not front and center in 2018.

Bishop of course has his own potential hurdles, including any lasting fallout for the Republican party from the election fraud case. Bishop also worked on the so-called “bathroom bill,” which costs North Carolina potential billions of dollars.

Still, Askarinam says McCready may be wise to tread lightly on HB2.

“His whole campaign so far has been that he is separate from Democratic party, has been largely isolated from ideological social issues,” she said. “He could absolutely turn off some of the voters in the southern part of the district, toward the east, where people tend to be more socially conservative.”