The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released the 2021-2022 winter outlook, and keeps Texas under drier and warmer than average conditions through February.

What You Need To Know

  • The CPC has released the 2021-2022 winter outlook

  • The outlook covers meteorological winter, which is December through February

  • Warmer and drier than average conditions are expected to continue for most of the Lone Star State

We're getting closer to the end of the year and winter, and thanks to the winter outlook from the CPC, we have an even better idea of what winter weather will be like in Texas.

Here's what we know: La Niña conditions returned in October, and there's a high probability that a moderate La Niña will continue through the winter months.

La Niña winter usually delivers drier and warmer than average conditions across most of the southern U.S., including Texas. 


The new Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature outlooks issued at the end of October by the CPC reflect the typical weather pattern during a La Niña winter.

These outlooks cover meteorological winter, which is December through February. 

So with drier and warmer than average conditions expected across Texas into February 2022, it's likely that drought conditions will continue to expand. With more available fuels, often found during winter, any strong storm system or cold front with gusty winds will create elevated fire weather conditions. 

Yes, there may be a few storms that deliver beneficial rainfall and potential winter weather, but a season with extreme winter weather is not likely in Texas.

Keep in mind, this is a long range climate outlook. If there are any bursts of extreme cold in the forecast this winter, we'll know closer to the event. So it's best to always be prepared, and up to date with the latest forecasts here on Spectrum News 1. 

Average First Freeze Dates

It's starting to get colder across Texas. When does the first freeze usually occur? Well, it's different across the state.

West Texas and the Panhandle usually experience that first freeze in early November. Into North and Central Texas, it's usually closer to Thanksgiving. The latest first freeze occurs by late December and into early January in parts of Southeast and South Texas...if at all. There are some years that a freeze does not occur in parts of the south. 

Dates of average first freeze:

  • El Paso: November 13
  • Dallas/Fort Worth: November 22
  • Waco: November 22
  • San Antonio: November 29
  • Austin: December 1
  • Beaumont: December 8
  • Laredo: December 16
  • Corpus Christi: December 20
  • Brownsville: January 3
  • McAllen: January 6