Overall, both temperatures and precipitation in November trended a bit below average. However, that really doesn't give us the best recap of last month's weather in Rochester.

What You Need To Know

  • We had a lot of big swings from cold to warm and warm to cold

  • The month was relatively dry compared to the 30-year average

  • The airport measured just 3.9 inches of snow

  • Precipitation that was observed in 22 of the 30 days was mainly light in nature 

November in Rochester and the Finger Lakes brought a variety of weather. While all of our communities saw at least the first light snow accumulations, some saw heavy lake snow pile up. The numbers below are based at the Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport. That is where our climatological record is kept.

Diving deeper into the data, we can see that we had some significant swings in our daily temperatures. Temperatures were above average on just 10 days, whereas the other 20 days were below average.

I think most will look back on November and recall a cold month, which it was for the most part.

Looking ahead to December, we are going to start on a cold note. Even though highs will reach near 50 degrees on Dec. 2, temperatures will generally fall back below average for the 8 to 10 days that follow. This would bring us nearly three weeks of colder than average temperatures from about mid-November through the first week of December. 

Around Dec. 10, models are suggesting a more tranquil and mild pattern across a good part of the country that could hold through around Christmas time. Based on my experience, that would make sense. The weather and climate are always balancing out, swinging above, below or moving through the long-term averages.

Around Christmas week, we expect a return to average if not below-average temperatures.

Beyond that, it comes down to which global model is more believable.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts warmer-than-average temperatures all winter.

In contrast, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) has very cold weather in store this winter.

So, if you want a cold and snowy winter, cheer on the CFS. If you're looking to play golf though, root for the ECMWF.

My theory? "As goes November, so goes the winter." Like November, I expect plenty of big temperature swings with a variety of weather all can enjoy.