When he won an upset victory in 1994 over Democratic incumbent Gov. Mario Cuomo, Republican George Pataki secured 53% of the suburban vote. He won 65% of rural counties and and just under half of upstate cities.
Repeating Pataki — a Republican hasn't won statewide since he last secured a third term in 2002 — has been the goal for Rep. Lee Zeldin in his bid against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. And recent polling shows he'll have more work to do outside of New York City.
Multiple surveys conducted by Siena College in recent weeks have shown virtual dead heats in battleground areas of the state.
On Long Island, a poll by Siena and Newsday released on Wednesday morning found Zeldin receiving 48% of vote compared to 46% for Hochul. Zeldin represents Suffolk County in Congress, making Long Island a must-win for him.
Meanwhile, polling from Spectrum News 1 and Siena College of two battleground, purple-hued congressional seats also show a close race. In the Hudson Valley's 19th District, Zeldin receives 46% of support with Hochul's 44%. In the 22nd District in Central New York, Zeldin drew 47% of support, Hochul at 44%.
Statewide, Siena finds a less closer race: The poll released this month found the governor with a 17-percentage point lead. The difference maker is New York City, where she is outpolling Zeldin 70% to 20%.
To win, Zeldin will likely have to make up much more ground and then some on Long Island and in other contested areas. A statistical tie won't help.
Zeldin's campaign has touted internal polling showing the race in the single digits, and Republican-aligned surveys have also shown a closer race statewide.
But the battleground for New York's race for governor will likely play out in the suburban counties over the next several weeks. That's not a surprise: the suburbs have almost always been a bellwether for New York's statewide races.
Pataki's high-water mark of suburban support was in 1998, when he won 61% of the vote there. That year, 30% of the vote in New York City was enough.