The major party conventions in New York are over. And now comes a scramble from Democrats and Republicans alike to try to persuade voters to either elect Gov. Kathy Hochul to a full term or end the Democratic winning streak in statewide elections of nearly a generation. 

And while Democrats enjoy many built-in advantages this year, experts believe Republicans have their best shot in years to regain power in some offices. Larry Levy, the executive dean at Hofstra University's National Center for Suburban Studies, is the foremost expert on suburban politics in New York. He has studied bellwether counties like Nassau on Long Island. What he sees so far is good news for Republicans and looming trouble for Democrats. 

Nassau County was once home to a vaunted Republican machine. But the GOP suffered some setbacks there in recent years, only to regain key countywide offices in 2021. The issues that motivated voters — like the state law ending cash bail for many criminal charges — led to backlash for Democrats. It's a potential harbinger for how the contours of the statewide elections will look in 2022, Levy said. 

Here's a conversation with Levy, lightly edited for clarity and space:

Spectrum News 1: Tell me about some of the issues that have been animating voters in the suburbs.

Larry Levy: The issue animating suburbanites kind of come down to security, both personal and financial. And right now they're feeling battered on both fronts. They see wage gains, yes, but they see inflation overtaking them.

And while Nassau County, for instance, statistically is one of the safest places on the planet, they're not feeling that way. And bail reform has become the personification of all their concerns. Bail reform accomplished for the Republicans what Trump's suburban carnage failed to do during the presidential election. He was not able to scare or maybe he wasn't credible enough to scare all the suburbanites into thinking that Joe Biden and the Democrats were going to overrun their neighborhood with crime and other forms of dysfunction. But bail reform somehow, with the help of some pretty clever messaging, and persistence on the part of the Republicans, got them frightened.

Spectrum News 1: Is that something that can translate to a statewide campaign successfully?

Larry Levy: Personal security, financial security, are two very powerful issues that could translate to a national campaign in the hands of a mainstream Republican and even though [U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin] has ties to Trump and brands himself nationally as a, as a conservative, he's someone who has always come across as reasonable in his district and has gotten votes from across the aisle. 

So put $20 million in the hands of somebody like Lee Zeldin and give him two issues that are really concerning voters and with a Democratic brand nationally still pretty tarnished with Joe Biden's low approval rating, and even with the enrollment adage that Republicans that is hurting Republicans, you'd have to say that they have a shot.

Spectrum News 1: Can you explain why Nassau County in particular is something of a bellwether for what could happen in a statewide election, especially in a midterm election like the one we're approaching.

Larry Levy: If Nassau County were in a swing state it would probably have more visits by presidential candidates, and more spending and more of all those ads than almost anywhere. 

But it is in a blue state. And Nassau is of interest to people like you and me and political scientists because it is a bellwether. It is the quintessential American suburb. It has plenty of rock-ribbed red conservatives and, and deep blue progressives. But there is a preponderance of moderates who are the ones who decide national elections. So if crime, if personal and financial security is roiling voters in Nassau, you better believe it's going to do the same thing in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Wisconsin, outside other big cities. 

And that's why paying attention to it is really, really important. In statewide races, because New York City tends to dominate the electorate in terms of numbers, the suburbs play a lesser role proportionately in determining outcomes. But the issues of personal and financial security are also driving voters in cities and in rural areas. And again, if the Republicans show that they are running a candidate who sounds and looks reasonable, if Joe Biden's numbers are still in the tank, and if the Democrats in Albany and in Washington, don't do something, or at least aren't perceived as doing something to turn around this sense of fear over their personal finances, and safety, it could be a very difficult year for Democrats, even in a blue state, like New York.

Spectrum News 1: It seems to a certain extent that these are impressions that have set in people's minds. And reversing a perception is very, very difficult to do. If people are worried about inflation, and the numbers looking at inflation, do show things are pretty bad. 

If people are worried about crime and there has been a rise in violent crime, it seems like getting people to, kind of, change their minds about that between now and November is going to be a serious challenge. And I know that March to November is a century from now in political terms, certainly. But how difficult is it for voters to kind of change their perception on things and when do voters really kind of have their minds made up on issues?

Larry Levy: This may sound like a distinction without a difference. But the burden of messaging is really on the Republicans because the Democrats have some pretty strong reserves, so to speak. 

When it comes to statewide elections, they enjoy an enormous enrollment edge. Democrats, particularly moderate Democrats, who come out in even-year elections in ways that they don't in odd years -- in the way that they didn't last November and left Laura Curran, the former Democratic Nassau County executive, without a job. So it's whether the Republicans can continue to exploit these concerns, raise money, which means convincing not only statewide funders, people who live in New York and fund local and state elections, but national funders that they have a shot, then perhaps they actually will.

Spectrum News 1: This always sounds so trite, but it does seem like a lot of elections really do come down to turnout. How important will it be for Democrats to make sure that people are going out and actually voting in November in a midterm election when you don't have a presidential candidate leading the top of the ticket?

Larry Levy: The turnout models in even-year elections are very different than the local elections. You will have more Democratic voters proportionally coming to the polls this coming November than you did last November. Just like you will have proportionately even more Democrats coming to the polls in 2024 then you will this November.

That said, the potential problem for the Democrats and the opportunity for the Republicans is that a lot of these voters are not activists. They're more independent, they're more moderate. And those are the voters who turned on Trump in 2020. But then turned around against the Democratic Party locally, and may still be vulnerable to, amenable to, the same arguments, but in a statewide context. 

So if Kathy Hochul, for example, is unable to or unwilling to move the legislative leaders to show that they've made some sort of meaningful rollback on bail reform, whatever that would be — without saying whether they should do it or not — if she cannot show that she is in charge and confident in rebuilding the economy coming out of COVID, if she does not demonstrate that she is a strong leader without the bullying, say of Andrew Cuomo, there could be problems.

Spectrum News 1: It also seems quite frankly, like Republicans have the advantage in New York at least of former President Trump not being on the ballot or not being in the White House. Like he seemed to have been an organizing principle for Democrats, especially in New York, especially in the suburbs, over the last four years and with him not in the picture, at least this election cycle, the Democrats maybe need to come up with a different reason for people to vote for them.

Larry Levy: Right. The connection of local Republicans to Trump is enough of a reach for local voters, that the Democrats in Nassau didn't even bother trying to connect candidates for district attorney or county executive, even with Bruce Blakeman, who defeated Laura Curran as the Republican challenger, was the co-chair of his New York state campaign.

Making that connection on the state level is a little easier and making it with Lee Zeldin, who has often been a surrogate and has probably appeared in a zillion pictures or videos with Trump is probably a lot easier. So I would expect that Democrats and Kathy Hochul will make that connection between Zeldin and Trump — to try to not only organize but energize people who consider his name mud or any other cliche you want to use for not very appealing.

Spectrum News 1: I know we're both neutral arbiters here, but if you had to pick just in terms of sheer chances of winning at this point, would you want to be a Democratic or Republican candidate this year?

Larry Levy: In New York state, I would always want to be a Democrat because of the enormous enrollment edge. But if I wanted to run for an office as a Republican, and would only do it because I thought I had at least an outside chance short of political science fiction, this would be the year I'd want to do it. There are enough issues out there bubbling with swing voters, even urban voters, that I have a chance to make a case and this would be the year to try to make it.