The winter weather outlook is calling for warmer-than-average temperatures and below average snowfall for most this coming winter.

Before getting into the forecast for winter 2024-2025, let's take a quick look back at what happened last winter.

Last winter was the warmest on record for many spots in upstate New York with average temperatures for the season running five to eight degrees warmer than average.

While snowfall was below average for many, precipitation was above average with more rain than typical winters. The two main driving forces of last winter's weather was a strong El Nino and positive North Atlantic Oscillation, which typically produces warmer and wetter-than-average winters upstate.

While we have already seen cold and snow in parts of the state this November and will likely see snow into the upcoming spring, this forecast is for December, January and February.

Our large-scale setup will be different compared to last winter as we're entering a weak La Nina with the North Atlantic Oscillation trending positive. While these two factors typically yield warmer and wetter-than-average winters, we don't think it will be as warm as last winter with a better opportunity for snow compared to last winter.

Lake Erie and Ontario are once again historically warm heading into the winter months. Lake snow can always tip the monthly snowfall numbers in the western part of the state, so like many winters, it'll be a wild card and could have some spots seeing more snow than average. Like last winter, arctic air outbreaks could produce heavy snowfall in the lake-effect snow belts. 

Higher elevation areas like the Adirondacks and Catskills also tend to typically do a little better snow-wise with this upcoming setup.

That's the latest thinking on this upcoming meteorological winter. 

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