In an era of political flash points, the nation has arrived at another crossroads, with an impeachment fight now embroiling Washington, D.C.
- North Carolina’s Senate race has been moved from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up”
- Tillis’s stance on impeachment may be part of a strategy to shore up his support
- Democrats may want to handle impeachment with “kid gloves”
Depending on how things play out in the weeks and months ahead, it could have an impact on North Carolina’s Senate race next year.
“I think it’s sort of a nationalizing, catalyzing moment, the way that I think the Brett Kavanaugh hearing was,” said Kyle Kondik, who monitors elections across the country for Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
His organization, which rates elections, recently moved North Carolina’s Senate race from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up”.
So far, incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis has repeatedly backed the president. This week, he wrote an op-ed for Fox News, saying “the liberal mob is back to take out President Trump by throwing more mud and pushing impeachment. Once again, we will fight back.”
Kondik said Tillis’s stance on impeachment may be part of a strategy to shore up his support, especially with the Trump base.
“Trump is more popular amongst Republicans in the state than Tillis himself is, which is something I think Tillis is trying to remedy,” Kondik said.
Could his backing of the president backfire?
If President Donald Trump makes it through the impeachment fight and is able to win North Carolina in the election, he could help carry Tillis to victory, Kondik said. Tillis, of course, needs to win the primary election first.
At the same time, Kondik said, his embrace of Trump has its risks. "If Trump is sinking in the state next fall, Tillis may have hugged the president too much to distance himself at that point,” Kondik said.
Tillis’s Republican primary challenger, Garland Tucker, is also critical of the impeachment inquiry, calling it “the latest example of Washington politics run amok” in a statament. "The Democrats in Congress need to end this hyper-partisan circus,” he wrote.
Across the aisle, the Democratic Senate candidates say they back an investigation.
Cal Cunningham told Spectrum News anchor Tim Boyum in June - before the president's Ukraine call - that he wanted to see the House open an inquiry and see Special Counsel Robert Mueller testify. In the interview, he noted that the "most effective way to hold this administration accountable is at the ballot box."
Cunningham has since clarified that position, releasing the following statement this week regarding the Ukrainian call. In it, he takes a swing at the incumbent senator:
“As a former prosecutor, I’ve faced down corruption, lawlessness, and abuse of power in state and federal courtrooms and in the war zone in Iraq. In each case, the mission was the same: uncover the facts and pursue the rule of law. Senator Tillis shouldn’t let his own personal politics get in the way of his constitutional duty to hold the executive branch accountable. I want to see the results of what should be bipartisan efforts to learn the facts.”
Erica Smith said she supports an inquiry, saying it should be a "measured process" to collect more information. She also said she “would much rather, on a personal level, impeach [the president] through the 2020 election – and then hold him accountable as a private citizen.”
Kondik said in a toss-up race like this, Democrats may want to handle impeachment with “kid gloves”.
“There still seems to be a small but significant share of voters who disapprove of the president’s job performance, but who do not support impeachment,” Kondik said, noting things could change as the House probe continues.
Kondik notes the impact of impeachment is an "open question" -- not just in North Carolina, but nationwide, in large part because things could rapidly change. He also said this impeachment fight may not even be a big deal for voters by next summer.
There are, in short, many unknowns.