North Carolina’s new congressional map passed by the Republican-controlled General Assembly will dramatically shift the makeup of the state’s congressional delegation.
The new map will likely result in three or even four Democrats losing their seats in 2024.
“I think there will be a number of folks throwing their hats into the rings,” said Catawba College Politics Professor Michael Bitzer.
That includes in the Triad where Republicans eye an opportunity.
While it’s currently represented by Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning, the new map splits the Triad in three, creating a trio of districts heavy with Republican voters
“Guilford county is sort of a perfect example of what the Republicans engaged in...really to dilute Democratic votes to pair them up with more rural areas,” Bitzer said.
If it stands Manning, will likely be out of a job. One Republican already vying for her seat is former congressman Mark Walker, who previously held the seat before his unsuccessful Senate run last year. Other Republicans in the race include veteran Christian Castelli, who was the Republican nominee in 2022 and High Point Mayor Jay Wagner.
In the Charlotte area, freshman Rep. Jeff Jackson also lost his Democratic-leaning district. Jackson has said he’ll run for state attorney general instead.
And one of his former opponents Republican Pat Harrigan is already in the race to replace him. NC House Speaker Tim Moore is also eyeing the seat.
In the Raleigh area, freshman Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel, who narrowly won election last year, will see his district flip from a toss-up to likely Republican.
Nickel is waiting to see if the courts will intervene before announcing his next steps, but in the meantime a host of Republicans have already announced they're running for the seat.
In eastern North Carolina, freshman Democratic Rep. Don Davis’s district will remain Democrat but the party’s voter registration edge will become even smaller than it was in 2022, creating the only toss- up congressional race in the state.
“That district is a 51-49 lean Democratic district but any movement in terms of who shows up, what kind of energy is on the ground could shift it to Republicans,” Bitzer said.
Another former foe, Republican Sandy Smith, has already entered that race.
Manning and Nickel are waiting for the court to weigh in on the new map before announcing whether they will run for reelection. The congressional map faces a likely lawsuit from Democrats.
While these likely Republican pickups could impact who controls an already narrowly divided House of Representatives in 2025, it could be a wash. New York Democrats will likely pick up seats in their state after their own congressional map is released, and a slew of court rulings forcing states like Georgia and Alabama to redraw their maps could also have a major impact to next year's races.