November ended with some beneficial rain, but it wasn’t enough to discount the dryness of the entire month. Meteorological fall (Sept., Oct. Nov.) overall lacked in the rain department, with each month having a deficit.

How does this all play out entering winter? Does a dry November and fall overall mean a dry winter?

What You Need To Know

  • Over 310 days since last 1"+ snowfall

  • No snow Novembers occur every three to five years

  • A dry start to winter doesn't mean winter overall will be dry

With factors coming into play, including an El Niño season, there’s no clear signal one way over the other about how the upcoming season will play out in the St. Louis area.

November details

The first 16 days of the month recorded no precipitation and although the no rain streak ended on Nov. 17, only a trace of rain was recorded. The wettest day of the month occurred on Nov. 20 when 0.50” of rain fell.

The last day of the month saw 0.28” putting the total for the month at 0.97”. The normal value for the month sits just under 3.50”, at 3.42”.

Although, still in fall, Nov. does average just under an inch of snow in the St. Louis area. However, this year, not even a flurry was found.

It’s not just Nov., the last time we saw at least an inch of snow was back on Jan. 25, marking 310 days without at least an inch of snow. The absence of snow could be because of the lack of cold air seen this month.

Nov. 2023 overall was a warm month, with 19 days above average. Nov. 8 saw a record high when the mercury soared to 84 degrees. Who can think about snow when it feels like July?

 

Does an absence of snow in November mean big snows late in winter?

Climatologically, the average date of the first measurable snowfall in the metro is Dec. 2 with Dec. 28 for the average first date for snow over two inches.

The top five biggest Nov. snows do not show a clear signal of whether the entire season will be snowy. Three out of the five seasons looked at, saw more than half of the season’s snowfall total fall in Nov.  

Using data from the past 15 years, three seasons did not observe any Nov. snow. Those seasons include 2009, 2012, 2016 and now 2023.

Based on this data, a no-snow Nov. is likely to occur every three to five years. But that doesn’t mean it will be a no-snow season overall.

2009 had more than twice our average seasonal total of 36.8”. Whereas 2016 saw a season total of only 3.2”. .

 

December outlook

With an El Niño present this winter, February looks to be our best shot at getting some good snow, according to the National Weather Service. December and January show signals of being warmer and wetter than normal.

The Climate Prediction Center’s one-month outlook shows a similar signal for December, with warmer and wetter conditions throughout the month.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.