ST. PETERS, Mo.—Next year, Missouri has its earliest place on the GOP presidential primary and caucus calendar since 2012. But outside of some candidate fundraising, the state hasn’t been a target of much attention at the presidential level.
Polling here has shown former President Donald Trump with a significant lead over the field, besting Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis by over 30 points, echoing other surveys in early GOP states.
The Missouri chapter of Americans for Prosperity held a debate watch party in St. Peters Wednesday that included speeches by statewide candidates and state legislative candidates and a brief discussion on GOP policy ideas on education reform, before the debate began.
But once it did, the audience seemed more interested in talking among themselves than listening to the seven candidates on the debate stage, minus the former president.
One audience member clapped as DeSantis chided Trump for missing the debate, but other lines, including DeSantis talking about banning the sale of farmland to China, or former Vice President Mike Pence’s call to end the federal department of Education—topics the local candidates had just discussed — landed with silence.
After the debate, one audience member who declined to be identified, but said he had not voted since 2008, sounded unimpressed. “Maybe number 3 will be a little better,” he said. “Maybe Trump will show up.”
The Trump campaign told reporters Wednesday night he will not take part in the November debate.
State Sen. Andrew Koenig, R-Manchester, running for State Treasurer, predicts a Trump win, but said all candidates should debate. He noted Democrats are not holding any debates.
“They need to go out there and present their case and tell people why they should vote for them.”
Missouri’s Caucus is scheduled for March 2, 2024 behind Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire on the calendar.
A 2022 state law eliminated state-run presidential primaries in Missouri, meaning both parties must study up on their procedures for next year. St. Louis County Republicans will hold a caucus training event in Fenton on October 14.
The state’s primary was held during the first week of February in 2004, 2008 and 2012, although in 2012 it was a non-binding vote.
Democrats will hold what they’re describing as a Primary-Caucus hybrid on March 23, 2024.
No candidate will have the nomination sewn up before March 2, but will Missouri matter?
State Sen. Bill Eigel, R-Weldon Spring, a candidate for Governor said it was “overwhelmingly likely” that the presidential race will be over by then.
One of his opponents, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, said there's still lots of time left.
"I think Missouri always matters. Whether or not the candidates realize that will be what we see,” he said. “If everybody drops out but one in December then it’s a foregone conclusion….I don’t see that happening but stranger things have happened in politics.”
Seen and heard: Eigel and Koenig, both members of the former Conservative Caucus in the Missouri Senate confirmed they are backing each other in their races for higher office next year. Eigel said he is neutral “at this time” in the race to succeed him in the Senate. A crowded primary field includes State Rep. Phil Christofanelli, State Rep. Adam Schnelting, and former State Representative and former St. Charles County Elections Director Rich Chrismer.
Attorney General’s race
The race for Attorney General entered something of a different phase this week. State Rep. Sarah Unsicker, D-Shrewsbury, who has been a declared candidate for the race for months, held a formal campaign kickoff Wednesday in Soulard. Among those in the audience at McGuirks included State Rep. Steve Butz, D-St. Louis and State Rep. Doug Clemens, D-St. Ann.
Unsicker would face Elad Gross, who ran for the Democratic party’s nomination in 2020.
“I’m ready to stop getting ready to campaign and start really actually campaigning and talking to people, raising money, getting out and meeting with new people around the state,” she said.
“After seven years in the legislature I’ve seen failures at all levels of government across all branches and these are things that need to be addressed and as a legislator it has been hard to kind of force people’s hands to say you have to answer these questions you have to look at these problems,” Unsicker said.
In the past, Unsicker said she’s pointed to problems with Medicaid, the state’s foster care system and the state Department of Labor. She didn’t outline any specific policy proposals Wednesday but said the bills she plans to pre-file in December for the 2024 legislative session would focus on government accountability.
Gross laid out a series of plans earlier this week. He was among many Democratic officeholders or office-seekers in attendance at the UAW rally in Wentzville Sunday supporting striking GM workers, and said labor regulation enforcement would be a priority.
“I think the Attorney General’s office and other state offices have a big role in that. Right now we don’t have a civil rights enforcement office at the attorney general’s office itself and that’s a big issue, other states do but we don’t and we’re not really not enforcing labor laws like we should be in Missouri right now,” Gross said.
The winner of the primary is expected to face Attorney General Andrew Bailey, running for the seat in his own right following his appointment by Gov. Parson in January, or fellow Republican Will Scharf, a former federal prosecutor and advisor to former Gov. Eric Greitens.
Tax committee expands
Last week, Spectrum News reported that the work of a state legislative committee studying the earnings tax in St. Louis and Kansas City would expand. On Thursday, it did, with House Speaker Dean Plocher, R-Des Peres, saying the panel would also look at personal property taxes.
Several proposals to cut or eliminate personal property taxes in Missouri have failed to gain passage in the General Assembly in recent years.
“By relieving our citizens of undue tax burdens, we unlock their potential to innovate, invest, and foster opportunities for themselves and their communities. It is time to enable our people to retain more of their earnings, as doing so will lead to a more robust, dynamic, and resilient Missouri for all its residents," Plocher said in announcing the expanded scope. The committee’s work is likely to shape legislation in the next session. The panel’s chair, State Rep. Jim Murphy, R-South St. Louis County, said he already plans to push for a bill clarifying that an earnings tax can only apply to work done in-person in Kansas City or St. Louis.
The committee plans an October 30 hearing in St. Louis.
Party planning
On Saturday, The Republican Central Committee for St. Louis County holds its annual Lincoln/Reagan Day Dinner at River City Casino. The list of speakers includes Attorney General Andrew Bailey and Treasurer Vivek Malek, who are each running to keep their posts after being appointed by Gov. Mike Parson, former U.S. Attorney Tim Garrison, and House Speaker Dean Plocher, R-Des Peres. Plocher has said he plans to run for Lt. Governor. The keynote speaker is Hogan Gidley, a deputy press secretary in the Trump administration.
On Wednesday, the Missouri Democratic Party hosts its annual Truman Dinner at the Marriott St. Louis Grand, with the featured speaker Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison. The DNC’s fall meeting starts Thursday in St. Louis.