ST. LOUIS—As Republicans prepare for the first GOP presidential primary debate of the 2024 campaign Wednesday in Wisconsin, a new poll of Missouri voters shows former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over his challengers in the race.

According to a YouGov/Saint Louis University poll conducted July 27-Aug. 8 that asked which candidate they would be most likely to support, Trump topped the field with 52%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 17%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 9%, former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley tied with South Carolina U.S. Sen Tim Scott at 5%. 12% of respondents chose “other”. The question had a margin of error of +/- 5.13%.

Trump is skipping Wednesday’s debate in Milwaukee.

Without naming a specific Republican, the poll showed a GOP candidate defeating President Joe Biden by a margin of 50%-35% if the election were today. Independents chose the Republican candidate by a 40%-27% margin.

“We seem to kind of be reflective of what the country is doing, at least on that non-Biden side,” SLU professor Steven Rogers told Spectrum News. “Obviously a lot can happen but in this, odds are that Missouri will probably stay a red state.”

Long a political bellwether, Missouri has become more reliably Republican over the past 22 years. The last Democrat to win the state was former President Bill Clinton, who took it twice in 1992 and 1996. Arizona Sen. John McCain won the state over then-Illinois U.S. Sen. Barack Obama by 3,803 votes in 2008.