The two Patriots games used to be some of the most anticipated of each Bills season.
As the two teams have gone in different directions over the last few years, this week has a different feel than before.
It’s *expected* the Bills go into Gillette Stadium and easily taken down the Patriots just as it was expected for most of 15+ years that New England would coast against Buffalo.
Players and coaches alike have said just what you’d expect: it’s still Bill Belichick leading a division rival.
The eye test comes to a different conclusion and Sunday we find out really how far things have swung from the old guard to the new.
Let’s dive into the match-up.
Get Right Afternoon?
The main topic around the Bills this week has been about their recent offensive struggles.
After blowing out the Dolphins 48-20, this team has scored a total of 34 points the last two games.
Sam Martin has punted 9 times over that span after just 7 boots total the first four weeks of the season.
The ‘get right’ conversation has included Josh Allen running more, less Stefon Diggs targets, defining roles for the rest of the pass catchers, better running game, and improved play-calling.
Bottom line – there’s more than one way to get things rolling again and that opportunity appears very much on the table Sunday at the Patriots.
New England’s defense does rank 10th in the total yards allowed (306.7 per game), but tied for 25th entering week 7 in points allowed (25.3).
They had solid performances early against strong offenses of the Eagles and Dolphins, but after facing the meager Jets O, have surrendered 38-34-21 points to the Cowboys, Saints, and Raiders.
Their best defensive player, pass rusher Matt Judon, is out indefinitely with a torn biceps suffered week four.
Rookie CB Christian Gonzalez was off to a great start, but is out for the year with a shoulder injury also suffered week four.
And while Belichick has elevated into the GOAT conversation for being able to scheme up the best defenses against most odds, the Bills have averaged 30.1 points over the last 7 games against New England (including playoffs).
We’ve learned anything can happen each and every week, but there’s no reason Ken Dorsey shouldn’t find ways to unlock this offense again.
Not Much Attack From Mac
I’ve got to admit, Mac Jones was better his rookie season than I expected.
He’s looked a lot more like who I thought he was since.
This season Jones has thrown for 1,208 yards (201.3 YPG), 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.2%.
His 74.4 QB rating is 30th in the NFL.
Those 7 interceptions are tied for the 2nd most in the NFL.
He’s averaging just 4.58 yards per completion, 29th in the league.
This all coming after an impressive start, throwing for 316 yards, three TDs and an INT against the Eagles week one.
Since, he’s produced 231-201-150-110-200 yard performances.
Protection hasn’t been great either, with Jones sacked 12 times in six games.
This has the fire burning hotter for Jones to potentially be replaced by either Bailey Zappe or Malik Cunningham.
Oh, and in the four games Jones has faced the Bills when the wind didn’t limit him to just three passing attempts, he’s averaged 204 yards passing while throwing six TDs to seven INTS.
Help Not Running Over
Even when Tom Brady was under center for NE, the offense often leaned a lot on the run game.
This season that’s not working just like the passing game isn’t.
Overall the Patriots are 26th in the NFL by averaging 83.7 rushing yards per game.
Rhamondre Stevenson is off to a real tough start, rushing for 234 yards on 78 carries and 2 TDs.
That’s 39 yards per game and 3 yards per carry.
Stevenson’s season-high is 59 yards against the Jets.
He’s failed to eclipse 50+ yards in four of NE’s six games.
Ezekiel Elliott’s flashed the one game he got substantial carries (80 yards on 16 attempts @NYJ), but his season totals are just 193 yards on 49 carries and a TD.
The Bills are already down DaQuan Jones and now Ed Oliver at defensive tackle, so this might be a place the Pats look to test with the run game, regardless of previous results this season.
On the Line
BUF (-8.5)
O/U 40
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 248.5
Mac Jones O/U Passing Yards: 178.5
James Cook O/U Rushing Yards: 52.5
Rhamondre Stevenson O/U Rushing Yards: 42.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 90.5
Kendrick Bourne O/U Receiving Yards: 37.5
Injury Report
BILLS
OUT: TE Quintin Morris (ankle), DT Ed Oliver (toe)
QUESTIONABLE: DB Cam Lewis (shoulder)
PATRIOTS
OUT: OL Riley Reiff (knee), LB Josh Uche (knee/foot), DL Keion White (concussion)
QUESTIONABLE: C David Andrews (ankle), DL Christian Barmore (knee), WR Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), OT Trent Brown (chest), DB Cody Davis (knee), WR Demario Douglas (concussion), S Kyle Dugger (foot), DL Trey Flowers (foot), DL Davon Godchaux (ankle), TE Hunter Henry (ankle), DB Jack Jones (hamstring), CB Jonathan Jones (knee), OL Mike Onwenu (ankle), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion), G Cole Strange (knee), CB Shaun Wade (shoulder)
Bills and Patriots kick things off from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough Sunday at 1 p.m.