Are you dreaming of a white Christmas? If so, you’ll certainly have to venture outside of the Lone Star State this holiday season. 

While a wetter weather pattern now looks likely into the week of the Christmas holiday, any precipitation we see will not come in the form of snow as temperatures will be far too warm. 

What You Need To Know

  • A white Christmas is out of the question this year in Texas

  • Temperatures will be well above average into the holiday week 

  • Above average rainfall will be possible through late December 

  • Meteorological winter isn’t over yet, so wintry precipitation could still happen in the months ahead

While white Christmases have happened before in Texas (anyone remember 2004?), they are few and far between. And this year? The chance of seeing wintry weather on Dec. 25 stands at about 0%. 

Why no white Christmas? 

It’s no secret that Texas doesn’t get much snow, especially compared to other parts of the United States. 

But even in colder climates, just the right ingredients must be present in order for snow to occur. Without getting too technical, the baseline ingredients for snow are moisture and atmospheric temperatures between 0 and 32 degrees Fahrenheit.

Of course, there are a plethora of other meteorological factors that go into snow forecasting, but these two ingredients are essential. 

So, why no white Christmas this year in Texas? The answer lies primarily in our temperature expectations for late December. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), all of Texas is very likely to see above average temperatures from Dec. 22-28.

Note that “above average” does not necessarily mean “hot,” though. It simply means that temperatures will be warmer than what is expected according to December climatology. 

For example, normal highs range from mid 50s to nearly 70 degrees across major cities across north, central and south Texas. Lows typically range from the upper 30s to near 50 degrees.

So with the CPC’s expectations in mind, we can assume that temperatures during the week of Christmas will be warmer than the ones listed in the image below.

With surface temperatures nowhere near freezing, we can assume that the atmospheric temperatures aloft will also be far too warm for snow to form.

Yes, we're saying it ain't snow. But rain is still in the cards this Chrismas!  

Just because snow isn’t in the cards for Texans this Christmas does not mean the holiday will be completely dry. 

In fact, the CPC outlook for precipitation between Dec. 22-28 suggests wetter than normal conditions.

In short? Your exact holiday forecast is still a ways out, but we may get rain for Christmas this year.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.