TEXAS — NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, has released its 2021 Summer Reliability Assessment. The study concludes that some regions of North America will be vulnerable to energy shortfalls this summer. Among them is Texas.

The NERC reports states that parts of North America are at elevated or high risk of energy failure during above-normal peak temperatures.

“While NERC’s risk scenario analysis shows adequate resources and energy for most of North America, Texas, New England, MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator) and parts of the West are at an ‘elevated risk’ of energy emergencies,” a summary of the report states. “In the ‘high risk’ category is California, which relies on large energy imports during peak demand scenarios and when solar resource output retreats in the evening hours.”

Texas, of course, maintains its own energy grid, the limitations of which were exposed during the winter storm in February that claimed at least 150 lives and left millions without power for an extended period.

While the report indicates that the risk in Texas is on the low side, it states the following:

“Variable energy resources from wind and solar are critical to meeting peak electricity demand in ERCOT. Periods of low wind generation or higher-than expected thermal outages create a reliability risk during peak load hours.

“ERCOT appears to be in a weather cycle that may increase the risk of intensifying drought conditions and higher than normal summer temperatures. These weather factors could result in actual summer peak demand exceeding the forecast, which already anticipates record peak demand levels.

“Thermal outages may increase during severe and prolonged drought conditions due to cooling water supply and temperature issues.”

The report echoes an assessment earlier provided by EROCT, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which oversees the state’s electricity grid.

ERCOT earlier this month said it is anticipating record-breaking electric demand this summer due to expected hot and dry weather, and population growth throughout the state. However, it said the chances of Texas dealing with a situation like what occurred in February are low.

RELATED: ERCOT says it’s preparing for record-breaking electric demand expected this summer

"While the risk for emergency conditions remains low this summer based on many of the scenarios studied, a combination of factors in real time, including record demand, high thermal generation outages and low wind/solar output could result in tight grid conditions,” said ERCOT’s Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson. “We cannot control the weather or forced generation outages, but we are prepared to deploy the tools that are available to us to maintain a reliable electric system. We hope this report helps market participants prepare to assist the grid if needed.”