It came a little early this year; the first round of freezing, icy weather in the second week of November. Not the first bout of cold weather and certainly not the last, but conditions like this are more common in the months of January and February.

The national pattern shifted abruptly in the last days of October – but what does that mean for the rest of the winter? Hard to say, actually.

In the near term, it looks like the continental pattern will once again flip back to warmer than normal conditions over the next two weeks. In a twist, instead of a drier than normal pattern, much of Texas is expected to be wetter than average.

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Extended forecasts over the next three months still indicate well above normal temperatures for Texas and the adjacent Southwest. Precipitation is expected near normal.

Despite the unseasonal cold of the last week or so, the larger pattern remains. Most of the Northern Hemisphere will experience rising/higher temperatures overall, with Arctic regions seeing some of the most severe impacts.

We should not confuse ‘weather’ with ‘climate’ as the latter is still spiraling out of control despite any short-term cold spell.

Dan Robertson

Twitter: @TexasThunderman

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