It’s a new year! The ball has dropped and the predictions are in. Most of Texas will be warmer than normal and nearly all of Texas will be drier than normal for the months of January, February and March in the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal outlook.

So, which regions will show the greatest departure from normal, and why is this pattern being predicted?

Forecasters at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) use a variety of data, models and other products in order to create a numerous outlooks for temperature and precipitation across the United States. One such outlook is the CPC's three-month or seasonal outlook. This particular outlook for January through March of 2023 shows a warmer, drier weather pattern across Texas.

However, this doesn't necessarily mean that drought is worsening and summer is coming early. Rather, this tells us that the most likely scenario when we combine the forecast for the next three months is that we will get warmer temperatures and less precipitation than is considered normal.

Three months is a long time for temperatures to fluctuate up and down. And, even though the CPC predicts warmer than normal values, we can see periods of time where temperatures fall below seasonable averages between now and March.

The CPC’s seasonal temperature outlook puts all of South Texas, West Texas, the Texas coast and parts of Central Texas at a 40 to 50% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures. A slightly smaller area that encompasses central and northeast Texas indicates a 33 to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures. 

Both areas in shades of orange are considered by the CPC to be "leaning" above normal for the most likely temperature scenario over the next three months.

The Texas Panhandle and areas in North Texas, including Wichita Falls and the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, are left unshaded. These areas have an equal probability of seeing above, below or normal temperatures. In short, models and data are not swaying those areas in either direction over the next few months. 

Aside from a sliver of northeastern Texas, the entire state is predicted to see below-average precipitation through March. This may sound grim, but it does not mean that it won’t rain at all between now and March.

In fact, we could still see days or weeks when rainfall is above normal. Even so, our combined rain total from January through March 2023 will likely still be below normal, per the CPC’s predictions.

When it comes to precipitation, climate predictions are influenced by La Niña/El Niño weather patterns. For this scenario, the CPC found that a La Niña pattern looks to continue through early 2023. The result? Less rain, most likely.

They forecast some parts of Texas to be drier than others through March. Far West Texas, the Big Bend and the Permian Basin are projected to see the greatest precipitation deficit.

It is within these regions that the CPC has a 50 to 60% probability that precipitation will be "likely" below normal. For Deep South Texas, Central Texas, the coastal bend and the Texas Panhandle, the estimate is slightly lower.

These areas at 40 to 50% and are considered "leaning" below normal. All of east and northeast Texas have a 33 to 40% chance of seeing below normal precipitation per the CPC’s seasonal outlook. 

Unlike the outlook for temperature, the precipitation outlook leaves minimal room for variation within Texas. The temperature outlook shows a portion of Texas that is unshaded, where the probability of seeing normal temperatures is near equal to that of seeing above or below normal temperatures.

For precipitation, the CPC outlook provides far less wiggle room. With only a negligible area of Texas left unshaded, it looks as though we will receive less rain than usual through March.

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