SAN ANTONIO — In his introduction to economics course at the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), Bulent Temel is teaching his students what he believes is a crucial knowledge base.

What You Need To Know

  • Last year was shaky for the U.S. economy. Inflation hit households across the country hard, but Temel says the economy is not in as bad shape as people think

  • In recent years, inflation climbed to 8%, but projections expect that to drop to 2% this summer

  • Resume Builder recently surveyed over 900 companies with at least 10 employees and found that four in 10 organizations expect layoffs in 2024

  • Layoffs are sure to affect the economy, but if the Federal Reserve drops mortgage interest rates, Temel says the demand to buy and build will rise, helping the affordable housing crisis

Temel was in corporate finance for years, but now he researches and teaches economics at UTSA.

“It will always influence what quality lives we will have,” Temel said. “So knowing and understanding economics is critical.”

Last year was a shaky year for the U.S. economy. Inflation hit households across the country hard, but Temel says the economy is not in as bad shape as people think.

In recent years, inflation climbed to 8%, but projections expect that rate to drop to 2% this summer. Although the U.S. has a $25 trillion economy, Temel believes this could spark a minor recession.

“There may be some job losses because of it, but it’s not going to be as disastrous as the recessions we saw in the recent past, like the COVID recession or the mortgage meltdown in 2008,” Temel said.

Resume Builder recently surveyed over 900 companies with at least 10 employees and found that four in 10 organizations expect layoffs in 2024.

“Detrimental for the labor market, many people will lose their jobs, and the purchasing power will go down as a result,” Temel said. “So the consumer spending will go down, which will, in turn, negatively impact business as well.”

According to that study, 52% of organizations are likely to implement hiring freezes. The study attributed the projected layoffs to companies wanting to reduce costs, increase profit and welcome artificial intelligence. 

“13% of businesses adopt AI to some degree in their businesses,” Temel said. “And they predict it to be 31% within four to eight years.”

Temel says AI is the inevitable evolution of our economy. Yes, there will be jobs lost, but AI won’t run itself, creating a new demand in the workforce.

“A small segment will be losing their jobs, but all the remaining will be increasing their income as a result from the productivity gains from AI,” Temel said. “So I think the overall benefit would be overall positive.”

Layoffs are sure to affect the economy, but if the Federal Reserve drops mortgage interest rates, Temel says the demand to buy and build will rise, helping the affordable housing crisis.

“It is an indication that last year’s biggest problem with the inflation is over and good times are ahead,” Temel said.