TEXAS — The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health administered a peer-reviewed study estimating the increase in live births since the September 2021 ban on abortions in Texas. It’s roughly calculated that between April and December 2022, there were 9,799 additional live births in the state.

What You Need To Know

  • A Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health study estimates Texas' near-total ban on abortion resulted in 9,799 additional live births between April and December 2022

  • Following the fall of Roe v. Wade, abortion is illegal in almost all instances in Texas once cardiac activity can be detected in a fetus 

  • Researchers suggested that 287,289 live births would have happened in Texas from April to December 2022 had the abortion ban not been enacted

  • In the future, researchers will focus on the effects of Texas' abortion ban on underserved communities 

Before the ban, Texas’ abortion rule was contingent on whether the pregnancy was over 22 weeks. Now, with the end of Roe v. Wade giving Senate Bill 8 a leg to stand on, abortions are not allowed once cardiac activity is detected in a fetus.

It’s not a surprise to researchers that abortion restrictions would cause a decline in procedures and a rise in live births. But time must pass for them to assess the degree of these restrictions. According to a 2022 study, one month into the ban, 2,171 fewer abortions were indicated at Texas facilities or in one of six nearby states among Texans — that’s a 38% decrease.

“There has been a lot of speculation about how restrictive abortion policies will affect the number of babies being born. This research adds valuable information to that discussion,” said Dr. Alison Gemmill, assistant professor in the Bloomberg School’s Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health and one of the study’s lead authors. “Although our study doesn’t detail why these extra births occurred, our findings strongly suggest that a considerable number of pregnant individuals in Texas were unable to overcome barriers to abortion access.”

Researchers created a “synthetic” Texas, based on nationwide live birth data, from 2016 through 2022. They suggest 287,289 live births would have happened in Texas from April to December 2022 if the abortion ban wasn’t enacted. During this time, observed births were at 297,088, a difference of 9,799.

“The study’s findings highlight how abortion bans have real implications for birthing people, thousands of whom may have had no choice but to continue an unwanted or unsafe pregnancy to term,” said Dr. Suzanne Bell, assistant professor in the Bloomberg School’s Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health and one of the study’s lead authors. “Notably, the majority of people who seek abortions live below or close to the poverty line. So many of these birthing people and their families were likely struggling financially even before the recent birth.”

In the future, as information surfaces, researchers will survey how the 2021 ban disproportionately affected underserved communities in Texas.