AUSTIN, Texas — A new poll shows President Donald Trump leads former Vice President Joe Biden by five points among most likely voters in Texas. But Hispanic voters prefer Biden over Trump by nearly 10 percent, though 13 percent remain undecided.   

The survey is from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation and Rice University's Baker Institute.

“I think the voting bloc is critical in this election for both Republicans and Democrats,” said Jason Villalba, president of THPF. “In 2016 Hillary Clinton was able to get in excess of 27 percent of the Hispanic vote over Trump at the time. Now that lead has shrunk to 10 percent, which means Hispanics are in play in Texas.”

Other results from the survey show Texas Hispanics with a four-year college degree back Trump over Biden by about 10 points, while the majority of Hispanics with a high school degree or some college support Biden by a similar margin.

“I think the state is certainly winnable for Biden but he has to run the table and most importantly he has to win an overwhelming majority of Latinos in Texas,” Villalba said.  

The foundation is a new nonpartisan, nonprofit group that analyzes the opinions and behaviors of Hispanic Texans.

It also polled for the U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. John Cornyn and Democratic challenger MJ Hegar. Overall, Cornyn led 44.4 percent to 37.4 percent, but among Hispanic voters Hegar led 42.4 percent to 33.8 percent. Around 19 percent of Hispanic voters were still unsure who they would vote for.

“That race was a little more surprising to me. Cornyn has been the U.S. Senator for 18 years in Texas. His name identification should have been larger than we saw in that poll,” Villalba said. “I think Hegar has a chance, like Biden, to overcome some of the existing institutional bias against Democrats in Texas and actually have an opportunity to win that race. Again it will depend upon the constituency of Hispanics.”