AUSTIN, Texas -- Recent modeling from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium shows Texas may have already hit its peak in the number of deaths due to the virus.

“When you look at the state of Texas, it sort of has that bell-shaped curve where it looks like we’ve passed the peak. And we actually say there that we’re about 97 percent probability that we’ve reached our peak,” said Dr. Kelly Gaither, a team member with the consortium.

Dr. Gaither says slacking on social distancing will affect that peak.

“It’s completely dependent on our behavior,” she said.

Gaither says they’re looking at two things to forecast the data: actual deaths that have occurred in a particular region and local GPS traces from phone data.

The modeling projections also now include specific information on what the peaks are for metropolitan areas in states across the country.

“For Austin, there’s only about 26 percent probability that we’ve reached our peak. So there’s quite a ways to go still,” she said.

Click the video link above to watch our full interview with Gaither.