NOAA has issued a La Niña Watch, which reveals what weather conditions Texans may experience this winter. 

What You Need To Know

  • NOAA has issued a La Niña Watch

  • The current phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is neutral 

  • Forecasters expect a weak La Niña for winter 2021-2022

The last update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) said there was a greater than 50% chance of La Niña returning by the late fall. Well, fall is here, and the current phase of the ENSO is still neutral. 

There are three phases of the ENSO: neutral, warm and cold. El Niño is the warming phase of water temperatures around the east-central Equatorial Pacific. La Niña is the opposite. 

The most recent update from NOAA notes a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is still likely over the next few months, with a greater 70-80% chance of La Niña during the winter of 2021-2022. Forecasters are also hinting that this La Niña will be weak.

What does this mean for Texas weather this winter?


La Niña causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During the winter, this usually results in drier and warmer-than-average weather across most of the southern U.S., including Texas. 

Even during a La Niña winter in Texas, there have still been a few storm systems that delivered needed rainfall and even winter weather. Remember last year's February winter storm? Yes, it was during a La Niña winter in Texas. 

So always have multiple ways to get weather alerts and stay up to date with the latest weather forecast here on Spectrum News 1 Texas.