America’s oldest continuously published periodical is back and, to keep up with the times, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has had to withstand change since it was first published in 1793. But some key ingredients to the almanac’s success have barely changed at all.
The most anticipated entry in this published once-a-year yellow book is the weather.
“We are expecting a very white winter wonderland for most of North America, frankly,” said Carol Connare, editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac. “For the winter, it's more snow and more wet and more cold than normal for most areas.”
That’s for most of the United States as a whole. For Rochester and most of upstate New York, the same forecast holds true, according to the almanac’s long-range forecast, based on the publication’s centuries-old “secret formula” for forecasting.
“Obviously, enhancements in technology have really changed things, but we still stick to three scientific disciplines,” said Tim Goodwin, associate editor. “When it comes to predicting the weather, there’s solar science, but also climatology and meteorology. There’s a lot that goes into these forecasts because they’re done so far in advance.”
Goodwin is a former newspaper journalist who was drawn to the Dublin, N.H.-based publication as a kid. The almanac uses weather data from 30-year trends, and boasts a traditional claim of its long-range forecasts being 80% correct.
“Last year, we were 100% when it came to precipitation, a little bit below that 80% when it came to temperature,” he said. “So it depends, year to year. But yeah, 80%, which I think is pretty good, because on TV at times, I watch the weather, and it's not right two days later.”
This year’s almanac also touches on an event that is a 100% scientific certainty, such as the April 8, 2024, total solar eclipse. Rochester is in the middle of the path of totality.
“It's just such an rare event that, you don't think about it too often until it comes around,” said Goodwin. “But if you think about the fact that people will travel thousands of miles to get into this spot, into this path of totality, it shows how rare of an event it is.”
It's as rare as The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s 200-plus-year-old existence.
“There's so much in here for everybody,” he said. “That's what I like to tell people is, the almanac comes out once a year, but you could pick it up any single day, and read about something interesting.”