His surprise victory over the summer gave Democrats nationwide a jolt of hope.
In August, Rep. Pat Ryan, a Democrat, won a special election to replace Antonio Delgado in Congress. His win sparked questions: Could the much talked about "red wave" in this November’s midterms be more of a "trickle?"
That race came two months after the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to an abortion — a momentous decision that Ryan made a focus of his campaign.
“Our victory in the special election …here sent a national message, that when reproductive rights, when fundamental American freedoms are at risk, Americans stand up,” he said in an interview in mid-October.
Now, having barely settled into his Capitol Hill office, the former Ulster County executive and Army veteran is back on the campaign trail seeking a full term — and hoping lightning will strike twice in the Hudson Valley.
“Not only do we have to marshal that same energy and effort, but we actually have to amp it up even more,” Ryan told supporters at a recent fundraiser.
After redistricting, Ryan is now running in New York’s 18th district, which centers around Poughkeepsie and includes parts of Ulster, Orange and Dutchess Counties.
In 2020, Joe Biden won the since-crafted district by roughly 8 percentage points, according to The New York Times. Election prognosticator Cook Political Report ranks the district as “lean Democrat.”
This time, Ryan is facing off against Colin Schmitt, a Republican state assemblyman and member of the Army National Guard.
Like before, Ryan is making abortion access a pillar of his campaign.
“Every American wants the same thing — health, safety, and freedom. But Colin Schmitt is a threat to all three,” he says in one ad.
Schmitt is a critic of abortion rights, who labels the laws in New York as extreme.
But asked how he would vote on a 15-week nationwide restriction proposed by some Republicans on Capitol Hill, he was dismissive, saying, “that’s not going to be voted on.”
“I truly believe the Supreme Court decision sent it back to the states, and any further action should be totally handled in Albany and the state Capitol,” he continued.
But will an abortion message pack the same punch this go around, especially with the court decision now further in the rearview mirror?
Some voters interviewed by Spectrum News are still very focused on the issue, such as Emily, from Dutchess County, who works in a local bookshop.
“The biggest thing that I'm thinking about when heading to the polls … is the invasion of privacy that the Supreme Court has been imposing on the country,” said Emily, who declined to give her last name.
Schmitt, meanwhile, is hoping his tough-on-crime message will give him the edge. And with inflation still running high, he is hitting Democrats on the economy.
“We’re going to stop the wasteful spending that is the main driver of inflation – get the economy back in control,” he said.
Schmitt recently earned the backing of the conservative-leaning Latino group — a demographic where he hopes to make inroads, arguing he shares their values.
Ruben Estrada, the leader of the American Latino Coalition and a small businessman, called Schmitt “dynamic” and said it is time for a change in Washington.
“That is not good business. When … one party is controlling everything. There's no checks and balances,” he said.
One area where the two candidates agree: the Hudson Valley will be pivotal in this month’s election, a point only underscored by the outside groups pouring money into the race and a recent visit to the district by President Biden.