Now that the Census numbers are out, New York’s Redistricting Commission will start the process of drawing new maps for both congressional and legislative seats.

According to Blair Horner, executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG), the historical trend has been “that the gravitational pull is really downstate, in terms of population.”

“The population typically grows the most in the City of New York and up to Saratoga in the Hudson Valley, according to estimates so far,” he told Capital Tonight.

But we won’t know for sure until mid-August when the U.S. Census releases block data. At that point, the work of the redistricting commission will start in earnest.

The commission’s timeline for map-making is proscribed, according to Horner. 

“Under the state Constitution, it’s pretty focused on what they’re supposed to do,” he said. “They’re [Independent Redistricting Commission] supposed to be holding hearings across the state starting in September. And the data that will be available in August should allow them to get ready.”

Whether or not they can get ready fast enough to hold hearings is another question, said Horner.

“I expect that in late summer, early fall we’ll start seeing the first draft maps, because remember, they have to have the lines in place in early 2022 so people know what districts they live in, and if they want to run in the primaries in June of next year," he said.

“It’s a very, very, very tight timetable,” Horner explained. “Tightest ever.”