Are the Bills back?
The offense responded to a change at coordinator for their best performance in six games.
The defense once again powered through more injuries to lock things down.
But does one game prove that a path to making the playoffs has new life?
While I’d certainly say the time for ‘measuring sticks’ games is long gone, we’ll really get an idea of if the Bills have returned to form based on how they handle arguably the best team in the NFL.
The Eagles are 9-1 (only loss to Jets week 6), including coming off a comeback win Monday night at the Chiefs.
Jalen Hurts is the current consensus betting favorite to win MVP.
Tall task ahead Sunday afternoon in Philly.
Let’s dive into what’s on tap.
Hurts So Good
Jalen Hurts is following up a breakout season by now being the consensus betting favorite to win NFL MVP past the midway point of this year.
The numbers certainly don’t pop off the page, with Hurts 8th in the league with a 68.5% completion percentage and 10th in passing yards with 2,497.
He’s thrown 15 touchdown passes to 9 interceptions, which was tied for 27th in the NFL entering week 12.
Hurts also not running the same as 2022, with 345 yards on 100 attempts, but nine of those being TDs.
BUT he’s been the catalyst playmaker for a team with the best record in football.
His dual-threat abilities will really test the Bills defense on all levels.
The pass rush has been great, 2nd in the NFL with 39 sacks – 31 of those coming from defensive linemen.
However, it’s a tricky task trying to get home while not opening up a lane for Hurts to take off.
We saw Sean McDermott use Dorian Williams as a spy on Russell Wilson a few weeks ago, something that could be used again in certain situations.
There’s also the three safety package that’s become pretty regular on known passing downs, which would now likely include Cam Lewis with Taylor Rapp already ruled out with a neck injury.
Rapp’s absence also should mean another active gameday for Damar Hamlin, who would play special teams, but I do feel has been good in the past when dropped down into the box.
Two-Man Flight Plan
Philadelphia’s another opponent that rolls with a very talented wide receiver duo.
A.J. Brown’s having one of the best seasons of any wide out in football.
He’s 2nd in the NFL entering week 12 with 1,012 receiving yards on 68 receptions (10th in the NFL).
Brown was on one heck of a heater weeks 3-8, reeling in 49 grabs for 831 yards and five TDs – eclipsing 100+ receiving yards in all six games.
Things have been modest the last two games, including Kansas City holding Brown to just one catch for 8 yards on four targets last week.
DeVonta Smith the Eagles 1B WR, though has been a bit up and down in 2023.
Smith has just one game with 100+ receiving yards and that was all the way back in week 2, with those 131 yards in one game accounting for about 20% of his season total in 10 games.
Still, he’s had 99 yards in two of the Eagles last three games and is always a threat for a big play, with at least one reception of 25+ yards in six games.
This will be another strong test for the Bills cornerbacks, which will be Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, with Taron Johnson manning the nickel like usual.
Bills O Looks to Go Again
The Bills made a change at offensive coordinator last week and promptly put together their best offensive performance in a month and a half.
Joe Brady deserves credit for how things went during his first game as interim OC.
So too do the players, who limited the mistakes that had plagued them those previous six games.
That seems to be the point everyone around One Bills Drive was trying to make this week.
The improved results were heavily due to improve execution by the players – which brought about the noticeably different energy from the entire unit.
Josh Allen was at the front of that, proclaiming on the sideline that he feels like he’s back (a moment the Bills QB downplayed this week, saying it was simply a line from the movie ‘John Wick 3’).
Now we see what type of carryover comes against an Eagles defense middle of the pack overall.
They’re tops against the run (76.5 YPG), but 28th against the pass (248.1 YPG).
Certainly those splits are in part because of game script, with trailing teams needing to abandon the run in favor of the pass.
Still, maybe this could be another game where James Cook (4th in the NFL with 688 rushing yards) can be a factor.
I’d be more pressed to see Allen once again be patient and take what the defense gives him, get Stefon Diggs involved at his usual rate, and use Cook and the run game as a complimentary piece.
Head Coach Ties
The Eagles Nick Sirianni will be facing his hometown team for the first time as head coach in the NFL.
Sirianni grew up in Jamestown and went to Southwestern high school.
When I spoke with Sirianni at the NFL Combine back in March 2022, he made it clear how his roots in Western New York are still with him as the head man in Philadelphia.
Sean McDermott got his start in the NFL in Philly, spending 12 seasons as a coach with the Eagles, including as defensive coordinator.
McDermott’s been away from the Eagles since 2010, with stints in Carolina and now Buffalo since.
On the Line
BUF (+3)
O/U: 48.5
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 259.5
Jalen Hurts O/U Passing Yards: 241.5
James Cook O/U Rushing Yards: 46.5
D’Andre Swift O/U Rushing Yards: 58.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 73.5
A.J. Brown O/U Receiving Yards: 82.5
Injury Report
PHILADELPHIA
OUT: TE Dallas Goedert (forearm), TE Grant Calcaterra (ankle), DT Milton Williams (concussion), S Justin Evans (knee)
QUESTIONABLE: WR Quez Watkins (hamstring)
BUFFALO
OUT: CB Dane Jackson (concussion), S Taylor Rapp (neck)
The Bills and Eagles kick things off Sunday afternoon from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia at 4:25 p.m.