Raise your hand if you thought the Bills would be 5-4 and on the outside looking into the playoffs at the midway point of the season.
The offense remains a scalding hot topic as the struggles have continued for over a month at this point.
The defense is hanging tough as injuries continue to pile up week after week, but it feels as if it’s a matter of when, not if that unit starts to show cracks.
An overall message that’s been clear this week from Sean McDermott and others has been that confidence remains high, in part because this team has been in similar spots in recent years and found a way out.
I think it is completely fair to be in more of a show-me state before trusting the process will prevail once again.
It is truly one game at a time and the next one up has the Broncos coming to town for Monday Night Football.
Let’s dive into the match-up!
Will the Real Bills O Please Stand Up?
The Bills offense is averaging 26.7 points per game this season, but have not scored at or above that mark in their last five games, and only three times out of their nine games on the year.
It’s a unit that is under fire.
The blame game continues on the outside.
Inside, Sean McDermott and Josh Allen both giving offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey votes of confidence this week.
Still, the search for answers remains.
That includes amongst the guys on the field, with Latavius Murray holding an offensive players-only meeting this week.
The buzz words up tempo, complimentary football, and execution keep getting fired out there.
There’s not one solution that will steer the ship in the right direction because there’s not one thing that’s been going wrong.
And while Denver’s overall defensive numbers may bring hope that this is the perfect opportunity for the missing “get right game,” not so fast.
The Broncos giving up 70 points on 726 total yards to Miami in Week 3 really skews things.
Zeroing in more recently, they’ve held teams under 20 points each of the last three games, including the Chiefs twice (19 then nine points).
Patrick Surtain is a great young cornerback.
Justin Simmons is a former Pro Bowl safety with 29 career interceptions.
Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper can cause issues getting to the quarterback.
Still, when the Bills offense plays up to their potential it doesn’t matter what defense is opposite them.
Let’s see how all the talk turns into some walk by that embattled unit Monday night.
Russ Not Cooked
Russell Wilson’s first season in Denver was a disaster.
Don’t even bother looking at the numbers, the eye test was more than enough to believe he wasn’t the same quarterback likely headed to the Hall of Fame someday.
It’s been a different story this year with Sean Payton now the Broncos head coach.
Wilson’s not cooking with a ton of yards in the air (201.6 YPG), but he’s been pretty efficient.
He’s completing 66.1% of his passes while throwing for 16 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and only 4 INTs (tied for fourth best in NFL).
The scrambling still part of Wilson’s game too, rushing for 20+ yards in 5 of Denver’s eight games.
So while it doesn’t appear the Broncos will win games riding on the right arm of their QB, he’s doing what’s being asked and making plays at a decent clip.
It’s the recipe for how a team that’s allowed to hang around in a game can ultimately find a way to come out on top in the end.
Defense Needs to Make Plays
We know how banged up the Bills defense is.
Maybe it’s injuries or maybe it’s just a dip in play, but two of the areas that are not what they were early in the season are sacks and takeaways.
Let’s start with the pass rush, which has had different guys in and out of the line-up over the past month-plus.
Still, after 21 the first five games, the D has only taken the QB down eight times the last four.
McDermott has blitzed more than we’re accustom to seeing, but the onus really needs to fall once again on the front four producing pressure themselves.
That’s where Von Miller, Leonard Floyd, Greg Rousseau, and A.J. Epenesa off the edge and Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, and Tim Settle in the middle need to get back in a groove.
If that group can be the force they were early (albeit without DaQuan Jones), I think the defense can stay afloat even with the injuries to key guys on the next two levels.
And that’s where turnovers usually occur, the second and third level of a defense.
The Bills had 13 takeaways the first five games.
They’ve had just one since (at New England on Oct. 22).
Some of producing those is luck, but there is also the element of making plays and simply being around and flying to the ball.
I think the pass rush and forcing turnovers go hand-in-hand, so if one elevates, maybe the other will follow suit.
As noted, Wilson hasn’t been one to give the ball away this season, but he has been sacked 26 times, four-plus in half of their games (three of the last four too).
Miller Faces Former Team
It’s funny this storyline is buried all the way down here, but there’s a few factors.
Miller said this week while there’s still so much love for the Broncos organization and fans, he never played for their current owner or coaching staff.
He is excited to see former teammates, but he’s maintained close relationships with those guys over the last few years since being traded by Denver to the Rams midway through the 2021 season.
Still, he’s never lined up across the jersey and helmet he wore for over a decade, elevating into the future Hall of Fame player that he is today.
Then there’s the element of where Miller currently is with his new team.
Miller has just one tackle, one quarterback hit, and two pressures in the five games he’s played since coming off the PUP list due to a torn ACL suffered last Thanksgiving.
He admitted this week that Sunday night in Cincinnati was the first of those games he didn’t think about his knee while playing.
The always optimistic Miller added he feels he’s on the cusp of breaking loose and flashing like the Miller of old, with McDermott adding he feels the impactful plays are coming soon.
As noted above, the Bills pass rush needs it.
Even with no revenge on Miller’s mind, it would be poetic for him to start to return to form against the franchise where he set the standard for what Von Miller’s form should be.
On the Line
BUF (-7.5)
O/U: 46.5
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 274.5
Russell Wilson O/U Passing Yards: 210.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 85.5
Dalton Kincaid O/U Receiving Yards: 52.5
Courtland Sutton O/U Receiving Yards: 45.5
Injury Report
DEN
NONE
BUF
OUT: CB Christian Benford (hamstring), S Micah Hyde (neck/stinger)
QUESTIONABLE: LB Terrel Bernard (concussion)
The Bills and Broncos kick things off for Monday Night Football inside Highmark Stadium at 8:15 p.m.