The Bills are at a crossroads.
Josh Allen doesn’t look himself.
In turn, the entire offense isn’t performing like itself.
Major injuries might be starting to creep up on the defense that’s carried things largely to this point in the season.
When asked, players and coaches alike say that if they had the answers there wouldn’t be these questions.
Thursday night against Tampa Bay isn’t a must-win, but boy will the alarms be ringing loud with a third loss in four games.
Let’s dive into what’s on tap as the Buccaneers come to Highmark Stadium under the primetime lights.
O Needs to Let Go
Don’t look at the stats because they tell a different story from what’s been going on.
The eye test is more than good enough to know the Bills offense is struggling.
You can make a strong case for whatever direction you’d like to point a finger, but if being fair and honest, it’s a collective issue.
I think what Allen said Tuesday is exactly what you’d like to see Thursday night.
“Maybe I need to think a little bit less and play football.”
That could be aided by Ken Dorsey going uptempo early and more often, something Sean McDermott called one of the strong aspects of Allen’s game.
I also think this is a forced opportunity to return the scheme a bit to how the Bills used to run things – spread out more wide receivers.
Dawson Knox is out due to wrist surgery.
Quintin Morris is out again with an ankle injury.
That leaves Dalton Kincaid as the only true tight end that’s healthy, though expect to see Reggie Gilliam play that spot more too.
Simple attrition calls for less 12 personnel and maybe more involvement from Deonte Harty, Khalil Shakir, and Trent Sherfield.
While history hasn’t proven to carry over to the present of late, Allen’s past performances on Thursday games should encourage you to feel a bounce back is on the horizon.
The Bills quarterback is 5-0 in his career on Thursday, throwing 12 touchdowns, rushing for 3 more, and completing 72.2% of his passes.
Tough Read on Bucs D
Tampa Bay’s defense is interesting.
Stats wise they’re not overly impressive, 20th in the league in allowing 342.5 total yards per game, 27th against the pass at 246.7 YPG.
They allow 50% conversions on 3rd down, dead last in the NFL.
Yet we all know the number that matters most is points allowed, and they’re 2nd best (behind the Bills) by allowing just 17.3 PPG.
That’s aided by turnovers, tied for 3rd with 13 takeaways (6 interceptions and 7 fumbles).
Vita Vea is the most disruptive force up front, though he’s being called a gametime decision with a groin injury.
Joe Tryon and Shaq Barrett are also guys to keep an eye on.
Antoine Winfield flies all around, tied for 2nd on the team with 42 tackles, while adding 2 sacks, 5 passes defended, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 fumbles recovered.
There’s plenty of playmakers on that side of the ball for the Bucs to make the Bills really have to be on it to produce.
New Kitchen, Better Baker
Baker Mayfield was the 1st overall pick in 2018.
Despite more success than most Browns quarterbacks over the last 20+ years, Cleveland moving on.
Since, Mayfield’s had stops with the Panthers, Rams, and now with the Buccaneers.
The two areas Baker’s been better with the Bucs are throwing less INTs and getting sacked less.
Mayfield’s tosses 4 INTs this season, but at a rate of just 2% of his passes – which as of now would be the 2nd best rate of his career.
Even better is the way he’s been able to stay upright, being sacked 8 times in 6 games, a rate of 3.8% that’s far and away the lowest of his career.
That obviously is as much a product of a solid TB offensive line, but also Mayfield’s improvement at getting the ball out quicker.
The Bucs run game hasn’t been good (77.8 yards per game, 29th in the NFL), so they’ve relied on Baker’s arm to move the offense (30+ attempts in 5 of their 6 games).
You know his top two targets – Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
I think this will be the biggest test the Bills CB tandem of Christian Benford and Dane Jackson have gone against since becoming the starting duo following the season-ending injury to Tre’Davious White.
Wrinkles to Help With Injuries
One thing that stood out to me defensively in the Bills loss to the Patriots was one particular package McDermott trotted out there.
Three safeties.
Taylor Rapp would come in and play deep with Micah Hyde in coverage and Jordan Poyer playing in the box.
However they ultimately align, I think this might be one way to work around the issues from those filling in at weakside linebacker for the injured Matt Milano.
Dorian Williams has played three games in place of Milano and benched mid-game during two of those.
Williams says he needs to do better at reading his keys and not overplaying things.
McDermott has said they’re still evaluating who to put in that position between the rookie Williams and veteran Tyrel Dodson.
Three safeties could be a different look to toss in the mix to allow Poyer to do some of the things that might be missed.
On the Line
BUF (-8.5)
O/U: 43
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 264.5
Baker Mayfield O/U Passing Yards: 229.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 86.5
Dalton Kincaid O/U Receiving Yards: 41.5
Mike Evans O/U Receiving Yards: 56.5
**DraftKings Sports Book**
Injury Report
BUCCANEERS
OUT: LG Matt Feiler (knee), S Kaevon Merriweather (ankle)
QUESTIONABLE: WR Chris Godwin (neck), DT Vita Vea (groin), QB Baker Mayfield (knee)
BILLS
OUT: TE Dawson Knox (wrist), TE Quintin Morris (ankle), LB Baylon Spector (hamstring)
QUESTIONABLE: DT Ed Oliver (toe)
Bills and Buccaneers set to get things underway for Thursday Night Football inside Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park around 8:15 p.m.