I am STOKED for this one!
The Bills and Dolphins have already been stirring the coals again the past few seasons to ignite a storied rivalry, but this Sunday just might be the jumping off point for what could be incredible moments for years to come.
We know what Josh Allen and Co. are at this point, elevating into *the* team to beat in the AFC East.
While early, it appears Tua Tagovailoa and Miami are ready to become a serious threat to that throne.
No more wasting time setting the table, let’s dive into an awesome match-up.
Offensive Explosion
Ed Oliver said this week he was kind of in disbelief when he saw that the Dolphins scored 70 points last Sunday against Denver.
So was I and I’d bet everyone else when seeing that number.
That performance might have inflated a lot of Miami’s offensive stats, but they still have been humming better than anyone through the first three weeks of the season.
Entering this game, the Dolphins rank tops in the NFL in total yards of offense, yards per play, rushing yards per game and per play, passing yards per game and per play, 1st downs per game, red zone offense, and points per game.
Sean McDermott called what Miami head coach Mike McDaniel’s doing with that offense as “revolutionary.”
They use motion the majority of the time, which not only helps undress what the defense is doing before snapping the ball, but also allows their incredibly talented and fast playmakers to essentially get a head start.
Many Bills defensive players mentioned this week how it’s really on them to process the information beyond the window dressing, a task easier said than done.
My question entering the game is does McDermott stick to the traditional core this Bills defense operates under each week or are there more wrinkles tossed into the plan that specifically match-up for Miami?
While last season this defense held McDaniel’s O in check, Tagovailoa wasn’t healthy for all of those games and the elements also were a factor.
Tua’s cooking out the gate this season and mother nature’s giving us elite conditions Sunday in Orchard Park.
It’s all there to finally have these two teams duke it out without other things getting in the way.
Stress on the Secondary
Tyreek Hill said before this season began that he wanted to eclipse 2,000 receiving yards.
Hill well on his way, with 412 yards on 25 receptions through the first 3 games of the 2023 campaign.
We know how dynamic he is, though the Bills D has done a good job holding Hill in check.
In the 3 games between Miami and Buffalo last season, Hill had 18 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown on 32 targets.
I’ll be interested to see how Tre’Davious White is deployed, usually shadowing the opposing team’s best WR.
That would lead me to believe he’ll be on Hill the entire game, but could Jaylen Waddle be the option with Hill spending time in the slot, a space held down by Taron Johnson.
One change we do know is that Taylor Rapp will be making his first start with the Bills with Jordan Poyer already ruled out with a knee injury.
Talk about one heck of a way to be thrown into the mix, though Rapp said Friday he does have experience going against a McDaniel offense from his time with the Rams facing McDaniel as San Francisco’s offensive coordinator.
We saw how Miami was able to exploit the Bills in the back end a year ago with back-ups at safety (and cornerback, for that matter).
Micah Hyde will need to be the steady presence that he is to help communication flow well with Rapp in and Poyer out.
Don’t Rush Away From the Run
What I think makes this Dolphins offense real tough is how dynamic their run game can be on top of the passing prowess.
Raheem Mostert was running free in McDaniel’s scheme when together in SF and continues to do so reunited in Miami.
Mostert enters 6th in the NFL in rushing with 240 yards, leading the league with 6 rushing TDs (4 came last week against DEN).
Then part of the pop off against the Broncos was the performance by rookie De’Von Achane.
The 3rd round pick out of Texas A&M cooked to the tune of 203 yards on 18 carries and two TDs last Sunday.
This after Achane was inactive week one and had 1 carry for 5 yards in week two.
Now the Dolphins come into this game with 2 top 10 rushers in the NFL, both of which bring homerun hitting speed.
We’ve seen this Bills defense give up chunks on the ground, from Breece Hall in the opener to Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson last week.
I’m not sure this can be a pick your poison type of game, so the Bills D will need be solid at tackling to not allow for short gains to pop into big ones.
Don’t Forget About Allen
Who would’ve thought that it would take us this long into the article to get to the star quarterback on the cover of Madden 24.
Allen has rebounded from a horrible performance in the opener to play far more efficient football.
While he wasn’t completing at a nearly 84% clip against the Commanders, there still was pretty good decision making and a continued understanding there’s no need to constantly drive the ball down the field if easier options are available.
Let’s see how he handles a defense that’s talented, but the early numbers suggest is gettable.
Then of course there’s history that’s shown us Allen kind of owns the Dolphins.
In 10 career starts, Allen is 8-2, thrown for 27 TDs and run for 4 more, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors four times.
He won’t have to worry about Jaelan Phillips, who will miss the game with an oblique injury.
On the Line
BUF (-2.5)
O/U: 53.5
Josh Allen O/U Passing Yards: 270.5
Tua Tagovailoa O/U Passing Yards: 276.5
Stefon Diggs O/U Receiving Yards: 82.5
Tyreek Hill O/U Receiving Yards: 90.5
**DraftKings Sports Book***
Injury Report
MIAMI
OUT: LB Jaelan Phillips (oblique)
QUESTIONABLE: RB Salvon Ahmed (groin), OT Terron Armstead (back/ankle/knee), S DeShon Elliott (ankle/groin), OL Connor Williams (groin)
BUFFALO
OUT: S Jordan Poyer (knee)
Bills and Dolphins set to kick things off from inside Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park Sunday at 1 p.m.