The Bills are 5-1 for the first time since 2008. The last time they started a season 6-1? 1993.
It was a season that ended by losing their fourth-straight Super Bowl.
Isn't it wild to think we are approaching mentioning this 2019 team in the same breath as one led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed and Bruce Smith?
It certainly hasn't always been pretty. There have been hot starts followed by cold quarters. Then, there have been cold starts followed by hot finishes.
Yet through it all, the Bills have found a way to win and that is the most encouraging part of all.
"We know that once we put a game together it can be scary," Bills linebacker Lorenzo Alexander told me this week.
Is this the week they do so?
Despite their record, I believe the 3-4 Eagles are the Bills’ second toughest test to date behind the Patriots. However, this isn't the Philadelphia team that beat New England in the Super Bowl two years ago. Their offense and defense rank in the lower half of the league. Their stars aren't shining as bright.
This is a game similar to five of the Bills first six this season: against a team they should beat.
Let's dive into how things matchup.
Consistently Inconsistent
The Bills offense has been a bit of Jekyll and Hyde during the first six games this season. We have seen hot starts against the Giants and Bengals turn into second half lulls. On the flip side, they struggled early against the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins only to show life in the second half. This unit has more 3-and-outs this season (14) than they do touchdown drives (13). I asked a bunch of players this week about the inconsistency and I heard the phrase "shooting ourselves in the foot" multiple times. Penalties, dropped passes, and poor decision making fall under that category.
The Eagles defense has shown to give up sustained and successful drives to opposing offenses. According to Football Outsiders, Philly's defense has a defensive success rate of .713, meaning an opponent's series results in a first down or touchdown more than 71% of the time. Speaking of TDs, the Eagles’ D allow one on more than 27% of their drives, 28th in the NFL.
We know the Bills offense can move the ball. 11 of their 13 TD drives have been 70 yards or longer. It is all a matter of doing that throughout an entire game, something it's failed to do to this point this season.
Going Deep
We know about Josh Allen's laser rocket arm, but it's not helping him down the field this season.
I believe that's just as encouraging a sign as it may be discouraging. Allen needed to become better at the short-to-intermediate throws and those numbers show he has done just that.
However, Brian Daboll admitted this week that those big chunk plays down the field really help an offense because something negative is bound to happen during a 10+ play drive. The Bills offensive coordinator does not believe Allen's issues deep are mechanical, just failing to hit on low-percentage throws.
They are throws the offense worked on this week during practice.
The Eagles pass defense has struggled this season, so those deep shots may be available Sunday.
What's Up With Wentz?
Carson Wentz isn't having a bad season, he's just not having a Carson Wentz-type season. His 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions tell one story, but Wentz is 19th in the NFL in QB rating, 17th in yards, tied for 24th in yards per completion, and 25th in completion percentage... telling a whole other one. The loss of Desean Jackson has affected things, but there are still plenty of other weapons that he has had while achieving previous success. Setting the tone early with him could be a big swing for the Bills defense, with Wentz struggling most out the gate, sporting a 54.3% completion percentage in the first quarter this season. Still, all the defenders I spoke with this week are not looking at Wentz as a guy having a bit of a tough start, but more as the former MVP candidate.
Tight End Duo
Zach Ertz has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL for years. Most teams who sport one elite guy at that position don't jump to bring in another, but that's exactly what Philly did in last year's draft, selecting Dallas Goedert in the second round in 2018. While Ertz is still the Eagles top target overall (35 receptions for 404 yards and a TD), Goedert's role increasing into quite the compliment his sophomore season (14 catches for 160 yards and 2 TDs). Let's see how the Bills defense matches up against these two tight end sets, especially if Matt Milano is out once again.
Bounce Back Performance
The Bills often talk about worrying about themselves more than their opponent, meaning that if they play their game it won't really matter what the other team is trying to do. Last week the defense showed weakness for the first time this season, allowing 381 yards to a Dolphins offense that's one of, if not the worst in the NFL. A few guys said afterwards there was some rust, overthinking, but also things Miami did that they did not adjust well to. There is no doubt Philly's offense, even with its issues this season, presents a far tougher task this week. What kind of response will that unit have? They are still ranked third in the league in points and yards allowed per game, so no need to press the panic button. I think this group returns to form to once again make the statement they're one of the league’s best.
Injury Report
Eagles
OUT: LB Nigel Bradham (ankle, illness), WR Desean Jackson (abdominal), DT Tim Jernigan (foot), T Jason Peters (knee), RB Darren Sproles (quad), CB Avonte Maddox (neck, concussion)
Bills
QUESTIONABLE: S Kurt Coleman (hamstring), CB Kevin Johnson (neck), LB Matt Milano (hamstring), LB Corey Thompson (ankle), WR Duke Williams (shoulder)
Bills and Eagles kick-off inside New Era Field Sunday at 1 p.m.