A warm December is likely for much of the United States. That's according to the updated monthly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center that forecasts above normal temperatures across a large part of the country. A long range forecast from the weather services company WSI has even forecast the potential for a historically warm December.
The highest likelihood for above normal temperatures is found across parts of the Midwest and northeastern U.S. However, above normal temperatures are also expected in North Carolina for the month.
A few cold snaps featuring below normal temperatures are still possible in a warmer than average December, but we would not expect a long lasting cold air outbreak during the month.
The main driving force for weather this winter is expected to be El Niño. This global weather pattern will continue the wetter than normal conditions that we have seen this fall into the winter. The same December outlook from the Climate Prediction Center that calls for a warmer than normal December also calls for a wetter than normal December in the Carolinas.
Snow lovers may be a little disappointed in the outlook for a warm December. That would reduce the snow chances for the month, but winter is just getting started. Historically, North Carolina sees more snow in January and February than in December. The long range outlook for the entire winter from the State Climate Office forecasts higher snow chances in January than December.
Despite the warmer than normal December that is expected, the entire weather season (December-February) could still end up cooler than average because of the wet El Niño weather pattern.