We are now one month from the official start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.  Early forecasts for the season suggest a near average number of storms will form.

One of those forecasts recently released by researchers at North Carolina State University predicts 13 to 16 named storms through the season.  That is above the average of 11 from 1950 through 2018.  However, it is right at the average of 14 from 1995 to 2018.  

NC State forecasters lead by tropical meteorology professor Dr. Lian Xie say they expect five to seven of those storms will become hurricanes.  Their forecast calls for two of three of those to be major hurricanes, or storms that are rated at category 3 strength or stronger.  

Dr. Xie uses more than 100 years of historical hurricane data along with expected weather patterns and sea surface temperatures to make his prediction each year.  He noted that there is a bit more uncertainty in the forecast this year due to a weak El Niño.

It is also important to note that no matter how many storms in 2019, it would only take landfalling storm to make it a bad year for North Carolina.   Much of southeastern parts of the state continue to recover from last year's season and Hurricane Florence.

The 2019 hurricane season officially starts June 1 and runs through the end of November.  September is typically the most active month.