With all eyes on the hyperbole-wringing, too-close-to-predict presidential tilt between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump and much of the intrigue of local races deflated by preemptive victories in the primaries, Tuesday’s general election would appear mostly a matter of top-heavy interest.

What You Need To Know

  • Locally, much of the electoral frisson was spent in the August primary with Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi’s landslide victory over a field of challengers by Choon James and Kim Coco Iwamoto’s third-time’s-a-charm upset over House Speaker Scott Saiki in District 25
  • Political analyst Colin Moore said a few races for the state Legislature that could be both highly competitive and potentially impactful for the local political landscape, particularly on the West Side, where three first-term Republican members of the House — Reps. David Alcos, Diamond Garcia and Elijah Pierick — are seeking to further establish the area as a GOP stronghold
  • In Senate District 23 (Kaneohe, Kaaawa, Hauula, Laie, Kahuku, Waialua, Haleiwa, Wahiawa, Schofield Barracks, Kunia), incumbent Brenton Awa is running against Ben Shafer, who upset former Sen. Clayton Hee in the primary
  • Hawaii Island Mayor Mitch Roth appeared ready to leverage incumbency and a relatively unproblematic first term to a secure run at a second term. However, challenger Kimo Alameda has emerged as a serious threat thanks to the endorsements of the Hawaii Government Employees Association and United Public Workers

Locally, much of the electoral frisson was spent in the August primary with Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi’s landslide victory over a field of challengers by Choon James and Kim Coco Iwamoto’s third-time’s-a-charm upset over House Speaker Scott Saiki in District 25.

Hawaii’s three incumbent members of Congress up for re-election — Sen. Mazie Hirono, Rep. Ed Case and Rep. Jill Tokuda — each quadrupled or bettered the total vote tallies of their nearest opponents that evening, portending easy victories on Tuesday.

Thus — aside from a handful of legislative races, the Hawaii County mayoral race and perhaps a ballot initiative or two — Tuesday’s local elections are expected to be a mostly ho-hum affair.

“I wish I could say something exciting but locally it’s a pretty boring general election,” veteran political analyst Colin Moore said. “There’s nothing really that’s going to change. The Democrats will remain decidedly in control of the Legislature, no matter what happens.”

Still, Moore notes, there are a few races for the state Legislature that could be both highly competitive and potentially impactful for the local political landscape, particularly on the West Side, where three first-term Republican members of the House — Reps. David Alcos, Diamond Garcia and Elijah Pierick — are seeking to further establish the area as a GOP stronghold.

“I don’t think we can really consider these districts Republican districts until they win reelection at least once,” Moore said. “Could some be a bit of a fluke? In some of those cases, there were particular idiosyncratic reasons why they won [in 2022].”

Specifically, Alcos and Garcia both unseated incumbents — Matt LoPresti and Sharon Har, respectively — left vulnerable by high-profile arrests for drunk driving. A charge of operating a vehicle under the influence of an intoxicant against LoPresti was later dismissed for lack of probable cause. Charges against Har were also dismissed because of a procedural error and she was later granted an acquittal based on lack of evidence.

This time, Alcos is running against local businessman John Clark III in District 41 (Ewa Villages, Ewa Beach, Ewa Gentry, Ocean Pointe, West Loch), while Garcia will try to hold off Anthony Makana Paris to retain his District 42 (Kapolei, Makakilo) seat.

In 2022, Pierick prevailed against former Hawaii State Teachers Association president Corey Rosenlee to fill the District 39 (Royal Kunia, Village Park, Waipahu, Makakilo, West Loch) seat, which was vacated by Ty Cullen after Cullen was arrested and charged for accepting bribes. Pierick and Rosenlee face off again on Tuesday.

All three Republicans ran unopposed in the primary to earn their party’s nomination, but each received fewer total votes than did their Democratic rivals.

“I think if all three of them, or whichever of the three, manage to win the election, we can more safely say these are looking to be more reliably Republican districts,” Moore said.

Moore noted that each of the three are running as “MAGA conservatives,” a departure from the more centrist Republicans who have traditionally defined the local GOP.

“Pierick is almost certainly the most conservative in the Legislature,” Moore said. “Garcia on his campaign website says, ‘Make Hawaii great again,’ so that’s a not-so-subtle connection to Donald Trump. They’re very open about their conservative ideological positions. They’re not trying to hedge at all. You know, they’re not these old-time, Kailua-style Republicans that are really pretty centrist. They’re very openly conservative, conservative populist candidates.”

That’s not the case with a pair of Republicans engaged in competitive races on the Senate side.

In Senate District 23 (Kaneohe, Kaaawa, Hauula, Laie, Kahuku, Waialua, Haleiwa, Wahiawa, Schofield Barracks, Kunia), incumbent Brenton Awa is running against Ben Shafer, who upset former Sen. Clayton Hee in the primary.

Moore said Awa, who eschews campaigning for office, is “very independent” and a media-savvy politician with a strong communication style.

“Unlike some of the other Republicans, he really doesn’t associate with the mainland Republican Party or draw connections to core Republican talking points,” Moore said. “He’s really his own brand, and he’s sort of delighted in thumbing his nose at some of the traditions of the legislature, campaigning or taking what he would say are principled stands against sort of popular but relatively meaningless bills.

“I think that there are lots of voters who don’t like it,” he continued. “One the deepest criticisms I’ve heard from people who might otherwise be supportive of Awa is that they are concerned that he’s just not working enough for the district, that the showmanship means that he’s not building the kind of connections he needs in the legislature, to deliver for the district, to deliver for [Capital Improvement Plan projects], to deliver for the district’s priorities. And I think that’s probably a fair criticism.”

In a politically divided district, Moore said, Awa could be an attractive choice for independent or disengaged voters, but not if they doubt his effectiveness as a legislator.

Awa’s office manager Samantha DeCorte, who is running to replace Maile Shimabukuro in District 22 (Mililani Mauka, Waipio Acres, Wheeler, Wahiawa, Whitmore Village, portion of Poamoho) seat, could represent the Republicans’ best chance of picking up a third seat in the Senate. She is running against Rep. Cedric Gates, who is vacating his House District 45 (Schofield, Mokuleia, Waialua, Kunia, Waipio Acres, Mililani) seat.

Shimabukuro retired in May, obligating Gov. Josh Green to appoint a replacement within 60 days, just prior to the primary election. Unwilling to influence the election by selecting either Gates or his fellow Democratic candidate Stacelynn Eli, Green selected Gates’ office manager Cross Crabbe to fill the seat. Crabbe ran for Gates’ District 45 seat but lost to Desiree DeSoto in the primary.

Moore said DeCorte, who ran for the District 22 seat two years ago, projects as a more independent type of Republican like Awa.

According to Moore, of the seven Republicans currently serving in the Legislature, only Reps. Lauren Matsumoto and Gene Ward resemble traditional Hawaii “center-right, relatively affluent Republicans” like former Rep. Cynthia Thielen or former Gov. Linda Lingle.

“The others are, are kind of a complicated mix,” Moore said. “There are so many divisions in that party it makes it hard to categorize what, who’s on whose team, with the exception of Alcos, Garcia and Pierick, who are quite conservative. The two Republican senators [Awa and Kurt Fevella] famously can’t get along so they’re not they’re on their own team. I imagine if DeCorte gets elected, she’ll be more similar to the very independent brand that Awa has carved out for himself, but that’s very different from the old-school Hawaii Republicans. There’s a bunch of different camps. There are a lot of camps where there’s only one member.”

Beyond the legislature, the Hawaii County mayoral race is significantly more interesting now than it appeared at the start of election season.

Hawaii Island Mayor Mitch Roth appeared ready to leverage incumbency and a relatively unproblematic first term to a secure a run at a second term. However, challenger Kimo Alameda has emerged as a serious threat thanks to the endorsements of the Hawaii Government Employees Association and United Public Workers.

The support of the union giants presses upon vulnerabilities with labor exposed during Roth’s battle with local unions over hazard pay.

“I didn’t perceive [Roth] as vulnerable before that,” Moore said. “He’s had a scandal-free administration. He seems to be reasonably popular. He’s not a candidate who’s ever had a ton of charisma — he’s not [former Hawaii Mayor] Billy Kenoi — but I didn’t expect him to really face a tough reelection fight.

“It didn’t seem like the campaign got started real early,” Moore continued. “My guess is he was caught by surprise a little bit. He had to face three pretty strong opponents in the primary and that’s always weakening for an incumbent. And then to have the two most important unions endorse your opponent and use their get-out-the-vote power to help his campaign — that I think that was unexpected.”

Michael Tsai covers local and state politics for Spectrum News Hawaii. He can be reached at michael.tsai@charter.com.