Democratic state Sen. John Mannion will win the race for New York’s 22nd Congressional District, the Associated Press has declared, unseating Republican Rep. Brandon Williams and becoming the first Democrat to win the Syracuse-based district since 2012.

The two-term state legislator was leading the congressman 54% to 46%, according to the latest unofficial results from AP. Rep. Williams called Mannion to concede.

Mannion’s victory reinforces the expectation of Cook Political Report, the independent nonpartisan index and analysis group, which earlier this year labeled Williams one of the most vulnerable House Republicans in the nation and on Election Day rated the race in the “lean Democrat” column. The 22nd District’s redrawn boundaries in 2024 are perhaps the most different in the state from two years ago, making it slightly more Democratic.

That’s not to say it was an easy road for Mannion. Despite what seems like should be an advantage, Democrats here have been burned over the last few cycles. A white whale of sorts for the party, the district that includes the city of Syracuse has had a Democratic representative only four years out of the last 44, despite a slight Democratic voter advantage and despite voting for Democratic presidential candidates for more than three decades. The district voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by 7 points.

Williams won the district by 2 points in 2022, cementing that it would be one of the most closely watched races this year with heavy investments from both major parties since control of the chamber was on the line.

The purplish district brought numerous visits from political heavyweights over the last few weeks on both candidates’ behalf. House Speaker Mike Johnson at a rally last week in Syracuse for Williams said, “New York’s 22nd Congressional District decides the fate of the republic.”

Mannion, a former teacher, is no stranger to competitive races. He first sought his state Senate seat in 2018 and lost by only 2 points. Then in 2020 he won it, becoming the first Democrat to win that seat in half a century. In 2022, he won reelection by just 10 votes.

Now Mannion will transition from Albany to Washington. He will be sworn in as a member of the 119th Congress in January.

The 22nd District is made up of Onondaga, Madison and parts of Oneida, Cortland and Cayuga counties. It includes the cities of Syracuse, Auburn, Cortland and Utica.