It took just over one half into the regular season for Josh Allen to take the field and days later be named the Bills starting quarterback. Sean McDermott called it “the right move” ad nauseam – a move that the vast of majority you were calling for immediately after Nathan Peterman’s dreadful performance in Baltimore.
The minority, though, had the majority of the same reasoning behind their stance.
Just looking at the roster heading into training camp was a cause for concern, but seeing how things went in the opener heightening the awareness of how badly this Bills offense lacks weapons, so I decided to look back at every quarterback drafted in the 1st round over the past 10 years (and a few fringe guys of note) to see when they got their first start, how they did in that debut, how the rookie season went overall, and the supporting cast surrounding them on offense.
The data is below. Also note: Patrick Mahomes started just one game last season, so I left him out and Jake Locker did not start a game his rookie season.
First, the record of those rookie QBs in their first start is 10-19. The TD-to-INT ratio is 32-34. The average passing yards by the 29 guys in their first ever start is 201, with 13 players failing to eclipse that mark (Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, Johnny Manziel, Derek Carr, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson, Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, Tim Tebow, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco).
Only four QBs from this group threw for 300+ yards in their starting debut (Cam Newton, RGIII, Andrew Luck, Teddy Bridgewater). The high man is Newton with 422. The low man is Manziel with just 80 (Dalton a close 2nd with 81 yards). Weeden threw four interceptions.
So looking at all those stats should have your expectations for Josh Allen this Sunday low. Very low. And not just because you aren't a fan of his supporting cast. Bridgewater and Luck went over 300 yards with the likes of Matt Asiata, Jerick McKinnon, Donald Brown, and Coby Fleener around them. Conversely, Ryan, Dalton, Weeden, and Watson failed to go over 200 yards with guys like Roddy White, AJ Green, Josh Gordon, and DeAndre Hopkins as their top targets.
There is no debate that the Bills roster needs serious upgrades, especially on offense. McDermott himself hammered that point home this past Monday by reference repeatedly how this is very early in just the 2nd year of their roster build. But it all begins at quarterback, where the reigns have been handed to Allen and should stay there for the remainder of the season. History has shown it is likely more mistakes will be made than not, but it is all about progress. The past 10 rookie QBs to start 15 or more game their first year all threw for more than 3,000 yards, with seven of those 10 tossing 20+ TDs, so that is the bar I am setting.
When all is said and done in 2018, Josh Allen should finish close to 3,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns with likely 15 or so interceptions. It is what first round quarterbacks have done recently and what I feel is a fair expectation to see out of the 7th overall pick.
Here's the dive into the stats:
Mitch Trubisky (2nd overall pick 2017) - Started 5th game of rookie season
1st start: 12/25 for 128 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss
Season: 12 games, 59.4% completion, 2,193 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Jordan Howard, WR Kendall Wright, TE Zach Miller
Deshaun Watson (12th overall pick 2017) - Started 2nd game of rookie season
1st start: 15/24 for 125 yards, 0 TD or INT in win
Season: 7 games, 61.8% completion, 1,699 yards, 7 TDs, 7 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Lamar Miller, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Braxton Miller
Jared Goff (1st overall pick 2016) - Started 10th game of rookie season
1st start: 17/31 for 134 yards, 0 TD or INT in loss
Season: 7 games, 54.6% completion, 1,089 yards, 5 TD, 7 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Todd Gurley, WR Kenny Britt, WR Tavon Austin
Carson Wentz (2nd overall pick 2016) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 22/37 for 278 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in win
Season: 16 games, 62.4% completion, 3,782 yards, 16 TD, 14 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Ryan Mathews, WR Jordan Matthews, TE Zach Ertz
Paxton Lynch (26th overall pick in 2016) Started 5th game of rookie season
1st start: 23/35 for 223 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss
Season: 3 games, 59% completion, 497 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Supporting Cast: RB C.J. Anderson, WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Dak Prescott (4th round pick in 2016) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 24/45 for 227 yards, 0 TD or INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 67.8% completion, 3,667 yards, 23 TD, 4 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten
Jameis Winston (1st overall pick in 2015) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 16/33 for 210 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 58.3% completion, 4,042 yards, 22 TD, 15 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Doug Martin, WR Vincent Jackson, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Marcus Mariota (2nd overall pick in 2015) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 13/15 for 209 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT in win
Season: 12 games, 62.2% completion, 2,818 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Bishop Sankey, WR Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker
Blake Bortles (3rd overall pick in 2014) - Started 4th game of rookie season
1st start: 29/37 for 254 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT in loss
Season: 14 games, 58.9% completion, 2,908 yards, 11 TD, 17 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Toby Gerhart, WR Allen Hurns, WR Allen Robinson
Johnny Manziel (22nd overall pick in 2014) - Started 14th game of rookie season
1st start: 10/18 for 80 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT in loss
Season: 5 games, 51.4% completion, 175 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Terrance West, WR Josh Gordon, WR Travis Benjamin
Teddy Bridgewater (32nd overall pick in 2014) - Started 4th game of rookie season
1st start: 19/30 for 317 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT in win
Season: 13 games, 64.4% completion, 2,919 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Matt Asiata, RB Jerick McKinnon, WR Greg Jennings
Derek Carr (2nd round pick in 2014) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 20/32 for 151 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 58.1% completion, 3,270 yards, 21 TD, 12 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Darren McFadden, WR Rod Streater, WR James Jones
EJ Manuel (16th overall pick in 2013) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 18/27 for 150 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in loss
Season: 13 games, 58.8% completion, 1,972 yards, 11 TD, 9 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Fred Jackson, RB C.J. Spiller, WR Stevie Johnson
Andrew Luck (1st overall pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 23/45 for 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 54.1% completion, 4,374 yards, 23 TD, 18 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Donald Brown, WR Reggie Wayne, TE Coby Fleener
Robert Griffin III (2nd overall pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 19/26 for 320 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in win
Season: 15 games, 65.6% completion, 3,200 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Alfred Morris, WR Pierre Garcon, WR Santana Moss
Ryan Tannehill (8th overall pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 20/36 for 219 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 58.3% completion, 3,294 yards, 12 TD, 13 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Reggie Bush, WR Brian Hartline, WR Davone Bess
Brandon Weeden (22nd overall pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 12/35 for 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT in loss
Season: 15 games, 57.4% completion, 3,385 yards, 14 TD, 17 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Trent Richardson, WR Mohamed Massaquoi, WR Josh Gordon
Russell Wilson (3rd round pick in 2012) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 18/34 for 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 64.1% completion, 3,118 yards, 26 TD, 10 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Braylon Edwards, TE Zach Miller
Cam Newton (1st overall pick in 2011) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 24/37 for 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 60% completion, 4,051 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT
Supporting Cast: RB DeAngelo Williams, RB Jonathan Stewart, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen
Blaine Gabbert (10th overall pick in 2011) - Started 3rd game of rookie season
1st start: 12/21 for 139 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in loss
Season: 15 games, 57.9% completion, 2,214 yards, 12 TD, 11 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Maurice-Jones Drew, WR Mike Thomas, TE Mercedes Lewis
Christian Ponder (12th overall pick in 2011) - Started 7th game of rookie season
1st start: 13/32 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT in loss
Season: 11 games, 54.3% completion, 1,853 yards, 13 TD, 13 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin, WR Michael Jenkins
Andy Dalton (2nd round pick in 2011) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 10/15 for 81 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in win
Season: 16 games, 58.1% completion, 3,398 yards, 20 TD, 13 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Cedric Benson, WR AJ Green, TE Jermaine Gresham
Sam Bradford (1st overall pick in 2010) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 32/55 for 253 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 60% completion, 3,512 yards, 18 TD, 15 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Steven Jackson, WR Mark Clayton, WR Danny Amendola
Tim Tebow (25th overall pick in 2010) - Started 14th game of rookie season
1st start: 8/16 for 138 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in loss
Season: 9 games, 50% completion, 654 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Knowshon Moreno, WR Brandon Lloyd, WR Jabar Gaffney
Matthew Stafford (1st overall pick in 2009) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 16/37 for 205 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT in loss
Season: 16 games, 53.3% completion, 2,267 yards, 13 TD, 20 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Kevin Smith, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Bryant Johnson
Mark Sanchez (5th overall pick in 2009) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 18/31 for 272 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT in win
Season: 15 games, 53.9% completion, 2, 444 yards, 12 TD, 20 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Thomas Jones, WR Jericho Cotchery, TE Dustin Keller
Josh Freeman (17th overall pick in 2009) - Started 8th game of rookie season
1st start: 14/31 for 205 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT in win
Season: 10 games, 54.5% completion, 1,855 yards, 10 TD, 18 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Cadillac Williams, WR Antonio Bryant, TE Kellen Winslow
Matt Ryan (1st overall pick in 2008) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 9/13 for 161 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in win
Season: 16 games, 61.1% completion, 3,440 yards, 16 TD, 11 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Michael Turner, WR Michael Jenkins, WR Roddy White
Joe Flacco (18th overall pick in 2008) - Started 1st game of rookie season
1st start: 15/29 for 129 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT in win
Season: 16 games, 60% completion, 2,971 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT
Supporting Cast: RB Ray Rice, RB Le'Ron McClain, WR Derek Mason