WASHINGTON — Democrats are still in the minority in Texas, but they have made some gains, in part, because of demographic changes. Those changes are especially pronounced in one North Texas county, making it one of the state’s biggest political battlegrounds this fall. 

What You Need To Know

  • In 2018, Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke flipped Tarrant County blue, but he lost to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, statewide, and two years later, in 2020, Joe Biden narrowly defeated Donald Trump by just more than 1,800 votes in Tarrant County

  • Tarrant County is the third most populous county in Texas, with more than 2.1 million people, and from 2010 to 2020, Tarrant County’s population grew by more than 16%

  • The surge in growth has brought diversity, and some political experts say it has led to Democratic gains, but Republicans remain skeptical

For decades, a majority of Tarrant County has voted Republican for president, from George W. Bush to Donald Trump.

But in 2018, Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke flipped Tarrant County blue, beating Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, by less than a percentage point. O’Rourke lost statewide.

Two years later, in 2020, Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump by just more than 1,800 votes in Tarrant County. In 2024, all eyes are on the Texas county once again.

“This is not a persuasion election. It’s a mobilization election, and whoever gets their voters there is going to be the one who prevails,” said Keith Gaddie, a political science professor at Texas Christian University. “This is a good place to come hunting.” 

Nestled in North Texas just west of Dallas, Tarrant County is the third most populous county in Texas, with more than 2.1 million people. It is also the 15th most populous in the country, according to the 2020 census. From 2010 to 2020, Tarrant County’s population grew by more than 16%. The surge in growth has brought diversity.

“Demographically, it’s getting younger, which usually trends well for Democrats. It actually has remarkable African American population growth, more so than Hispanic population growth, but growth in those two areas are generally good indicators for Democratic gains,” Gaddie said.  

“We’ll probably see a surge in Black voter interest and Black voter participation, which bodes well for Democrats running in Tarrant County and also bodes well for Congressman Allred,” Gaddie continued.

Some Texas Democrats say their victories are not only because Tarrant County is changing. 

“Republicans are so outside of the mainstream of not only Democrats, but independent and, frankly, many soft Republican voters. When you look at Ted Cruz and his extreme partisan record in the U.S. Senate, I think, Tarrant County voters are ready to turn the page on Ted Cruz,” Rep. Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie, told Spectrum News.

Democrats say having Vice President Kamala Harris and Senate candidate Colin Allred on the ballot will get voters more engaged. Republicans say they are skeptical. 

“(Harris has) just really shown that she’s not up for the task, and the more she talks, the more that voters realize that. I think her enthusiasm is actually going down. Colin Allred, look, he seems like a nice guy,” said Bo French, chair of the Tarrant County GOP. “There’s probably a close match there, but his voting record is so atrocious.” 

Even though Biden narrowly won Tarrant County in 2020, Republican Sen. John Cornyn also triumphed there. 

“What you saw in 2018 and 2020, the left was just very successful in personalizing the top of the ticket, and in Tarrant County, we’ve just always been a red county, and I think a lot of Republicans were just a little bit too complacent,” said French. “I think we certainly have the numbers here to win at the top of the ticket.”

A Democrat has not won statewide in Texas in 30 years.