TEXAS — In what will be the most-watched race in Texas, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Colin Allred is within five points of incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. 

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation released a new poll Tuesday morning showing Cruz earning 46% support to Allred’s 41%.

“The fact that Allred is within five points of Cruz this early in the election cycle is quite telling,” the Foundation’s CEO Jason Villalba said in an interview on Capital Tonight. “It tells us number one that Cruz is underperforming his base as evidence by the support President Trump gets in our same poll. But it also tells us that Allred is overperforming his base by how well he’s done vis-à-vis President Biden.”   

In the presidential race, Trump is up 12 points over Biden (48-36%) and leads Biden by that much with or without Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on the ballot. The TxHPF poll was conducted between April 5 and April 10 of 1,600 likely voters in Texas. Its margin of error is 2.45%.

The survey also shows Trump up four points over Biden when it comes to Hispanic voters. 

“That’s remarkable, and the reason is we believe that evangelical Hispanics and men are driving that support,” Villalba said. “We haven’t seen that kind of a number among Hispanics for a Republican since George W. Bush and it does tell you about the strength Trump has statewide.” 

Unlike Trump, Cruz is trailing Allred by five points among Hispanic voters.

“It shows the strength Allred has with the base. Allred brings home the traditional Democratic voters with the Hispanic voters and he’s able to do that in a way that Cruz has not,” Villalba said.  

Click the video link above to watch our full interview with Villalba.