SAN ANTONIO — Professor Dr. Belinda Román looks at economic trends often. But she didn’t expect her 2023 predictions to be spot on. 

“In economics we’re trying to understand that, and if we can measure it,” Román said to her international economics class.

For a little over a decade, Román has taught economics at St. Mary’s University. 

“We’re all living it,” said Román. “We all experience it. And sometimes to understand what’s happening to you, your money, your life, your family; you need to understand a little bit about what’s going on in the economy.”

The San Antonio professor sees economics as her avenue to help people. She’s lent her expertise to the Wall Street Journal.

“Every quarter they ask a group of economists to come in and say, 'What do you think it’s going to be like in the short term and over a course of a year?'” Román said. 

Although Román’s not a trained forecaster, her predictions last year were pretty accurate. 

“I wasn’t expecting it,” she said. “When I finally spoke with the reporter from the Wall Street Journal, he told me, and I was like, 'Wow. I can’t believe it.'”

Of 71 economists, Román’s January 2023 forecast was closest to the actual end-of-year numbers reported by the federal government. She was just a few percentage points off from the actual unemployment rate, GDP and the target federal funds rate.

Now there’s her 2024 predictions. With this being a major election year, Román says however the election shakes out will have an impact on the economy.

“Who (eventually) wins at the state level,” said Dr. Román. “Then at the city level. All politics at all levels make a difference.”

Román says having the most accurate forecast in 2024 may be difficult, but she knows one thing for certain.

“The Federal Reserve is going to lower the interest rate, because they said so,” said Dr. Román. “It’s just when. And for us who credit cards and loans and cars and everything, that’ll be a blessing.”

A new study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University revealed Americans are "cost burdened." Half of renters are spending more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities, which can become problematic.

“You have your pie, and you take most of it to pay for your house,” Román said. “Then you still got to get groceries, car insurance. The kids need this. You go through the whole list, and you got to start picking which one you’re going to do.”

Román doesn’t have a crystal ball to predict our economic future but encourages her students and consumers to pay attention to economic trends.

“You also have to think about what’s going on, what the world is saying and what you’re seeing in the news and everything like that," she said.