NOAA has released the winter 2020-21 forecast for the U.S. It favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions farther north, thanks in part to an ongoing La Niña.

What You Need To Know

  • La Niña could allow for a warmer-than-average winter in Texas
  • Conditions are also expected to be dry, worsening drought conditions

  • Cool, wet weather can be found across the northern U.S.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — part of the National Weather Service — are also closely monitoring persistent drought, with more than 45% of the continental U.S. now experiencing drought conditions.

Currently, large areas of drought extend over the western half of the U.S., with parts of the Northeast also experiencing drought and near-record low stream flows.

With a La Niña climate pattern in place, southern parts of the U.S. may experience an expanded and intensifying drought during the winter months ahead.

This U.S. Winter Outlook 2020-21 map for temperature shows above-average temperatures are likely in the South, with below-average temperatures likely in parts of the North.

The greatest chances for warmer-than-normal conditions extend across the southern tier of the U.S. from the Southwest, across the Gulf states, and into the Southeast.


The outlook for precipitation shows drier-than-average weather is favored across the South. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are predicted in the Southwest, across Texas along the Gulf Coast, and in Florida.


Source: NOAA Winter 2020-2021 Outlook