AUSTIN, Texas — Ever since Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, narrowly won reelection six years ago, Democrats have circled Tuesday on their calendars and are determined to try again. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, decided to take Cruz on and has run a very competitive race. The contest has generated a lot of national interest and drawn tens of millions of dollars in campaign contributions.

What You Need To Know

  • Texas voters will have to decide whether to send Republican Sen. Ted Cruz to a third term or elect a Democrat to statewide office for the first time in 30 years

  • A poll released Sunday by Morning Consult put Cruz up by 3 points, but that is within the margin of error
  • National Democrats see the matchup as the Senate race most likely to produce an upset and help them keep their Senate majority

  • Cruz and Allred have raised a combined $166 million and outside advocacy groups and political action committees are spending tens of millions of dollars more
 

Will Texas elect Cruz to a third term?

“I know there has never been a starker difference in a Senate race than between me and Colin Allred,” Cruz said last week at a rally in Georgetown. “I can tell you for 12 years, I've had the incredible honor of fighting every day for 30 million Texans and my top three priorities are jobs, freedom and security.”

Or will Texans elect a Democrat to statewide office for the first time in 30 years? Allred, a former NFL linebacker, flipped a long-held Republican seat in North Texas in 2018.

“My time in Congress, I've been the exact opposite of Ted Cruz, because I never forgot where I came from. I never forgot the folks who gave me a chance,” Allred said at a rally in Houston last month. “Ted Cruz has been all about himself for too long.”

Cruz defeated former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by less than 3 percentage points in 2018.

“What 2018 did is it put the fear of God in Ted Cruz, and I think the day after he won that election, he's been running for reelection,” said Sean Theriault, university distinguished teaching professor in the government department at the University of Texas at Austin.

A poll released Sunday by Morning Consult put Cruz up by 3 points, but that is within the margin of error. Allred has polled consistently within striking distance.

Theriault said what happens at the top of the ticket could affect Allred’s chances.

“If that margin for Donald Trump starts slipping to 4 or 5 points, then I think there's a real shot,” Theriault said.

National Democrats see the matchup as the Senate race most likely to produce an upset and help them keep their Senate majority.

Cruz and Allred have raised a combined $166 million. Outside advocacy groups and political action committees are spending tens of millions of dollars more.

“The more purple Texas becomes, right, then the more competitive it becomes,” Theriault said. “Also, never forget how difficult it is to run in Texas. You have so many media markets, and so it takes a lot of money to run a statewide race, and so Texas is just going to be more demanding. It's going to be more expensive because of that.”

Cruz has hammered two issues throughout the campaign — the participation of transgender youth in sports and security at the southern border.

Meanwhile, Allred has made abortion rights a cornerstone of his campaign. He’s talked much about the effects of Texas’ abortion restrictions.

Experts say the emphasis of both candidates represents an effort to galvanize their bases.

“These are red meat issues for the diehard liberals in abortion access and die hard conservatives in the border, and so they're just trying to drive up their turnout, because the persuadables are so small that if you can just get your side to turn out a little bit more than the other side, then that could make all the difference in the world,” Theriault said.

In the final days on the campaign trail, both candidates have made multiple stops across the state.

Allred finished off his week trying to mobilize support in his hometown of Dallas. This city is one of the state's Democratic areas where he will need to maximize voter turnout.

State Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, helped flip Dallas County blue in 2006, and he believes social media is an important avenue of communication that will encourage people to turn out and vote for Allred.

"Texas is not a red state. It's a non-voting state, and if Democrats, independents and Republicans, specifically women who understand the importance of that Dobbs decision in terms of taking away their freedom (vote), they'll be very supportive of Colin Allred," West told Spectrum News.

Cruz embarked on a bus tour that has made more than 50 stops. Sen. John Cornyn and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick made appearances at Cruz’s campaign events on Monday.

“I'm optimistic Ted's going to win. I've done everything I can to help him, ” Cornyn told reporters last week. “We can't let the Democrats get their foot in the door. I know they've had this dream of turning Texas blue, but for me, that's a nightmare, not a dream.”

The National Border Patrol Council endorsed Cruz and the Texas AFL-CIO is backing Allred. Both candidates have used endorsements to paint themselves as bipartisan. Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg, a Democrat, has endorsed Cruz and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming is supporting Allred.