President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Thursday that Russia could invade Ukraine in the coming days. Meanwhile, Russia expelled Bart Gorman, the deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, the State Department confirmed.
Biden told reporters Thursday that there is a "very high" likelihood Russia will invade Ukraine "in the next several days."
"They have not moved any of their troops out,” the president said, disputing reports from Moscow that Russia is is drawing down its troops. "We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false flag operation."
A senior administration official said Wednesday that Russia has added as many as 7,000 troops to the estimated 150,000 troops at the Russian-Ukrainian border.
"Russia’s action against our DCM was unprovoked and we consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response," a spokesperson for the State Department said.
Speaking to the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, Blinken said U.S. intelligence “indicates clearly that these forces, including ground troops, aircraft, ships, are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days.”
“The most immediate threat to peace and security is Russia's looming aggression against Ukraine,” Blinken said. “ … This is a moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people.”
Blinken said “Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack,” although he acknowledged U.S. officials don’t know exactly how. He said there could be a violent event that Russia blames on Ukraine. He also said Moscow might make an “outrageous accusation” about the Ukrainian government.
“It could be a fabricated so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake (or) even a real attack using chemical weapons,” he said. “Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide.”
Blinken said Russian state-controlled has been making more false claims recently to maximize public outrage.
The secretary of state said the U.S. believes a Russian attack would start with missiles and bombs being dropped across Ukraine. Communications would then be jammed, and cyberattacks would cripple key Ukrainian institutions, he predicted. Then Russian tanks and soldiers would move on key targets, including the capital of Kyiv, Blinken said.
In a surprise blow to diplomacy, Gorman was ordered to leave the country. The U.S. State Department called the move “unprovoked” and “an escalatory step.” Russia did not say why he was expelled.
Moscow has vehemently denied it has any plans to invade Ukraine. But NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia has "enough troops, enough capabilities, to launch a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine with very little or no warning time."
"The fact that you’re putting a battle tank on a train and moving it in some direction doesn’t prove a withdrawal of troops," he added.
Biden maintained he still believes that a diplomatic path forward is possible.
Just before embarking on a trip to Germany to attend the Munich Security Conference, Blinken called on the U.N. Security Council to address the Russia-Ukraine crisis and, too, urged Russia to choose diplomacy.
“Let me make this simple: The Russian government can announce today with no qualification of equivocation or deflection that Russia will not invade Ukraine,” the secretary of state said. “State it clearly, state it plainly to the world, and then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their barracks and hangers and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table in the coming days.”
Blinken added he’s aware that some people are skeptical of the United States’ predictions about a Russian invasion based, in part, on faulty intelligence in the past. But he said Russia’s actions are happening in plain sight and that U.S. allies and partners agree with its assessments.
“I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one,” Blinken said.
Blinken added that Russia has responded to a list of steps the U.S. proposed weeks ago to address its concerns, but did not elaborate. American officials are evaluating the response, he said. Blinken also said he requested to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov again next week in Europe.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield wrote on Twitter that "the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion," calling it a "crucial moment."
"That’s why Secretary Blinken is coming to New York on his way to Munich to signal our intense commitment to diplomacy, to offer and emphasize the path toward de-escalation, and to make it clear to the world that we are doing everything we can to prevent war," she added.
The U.S. has started deploying 5,000 troops to Poland and Romania. Another 8,500 are on standby, and some U.S. troops are expected to move toward Bulgaria. Britain is sending hundreds of soldiers to Poland, offering more warships and planes, and doubling its personnel in Estonia. Germany, the Netherlands and Norway are sending additional troops to Lithuania. Denmark and Spain are providing jets for air policing in the Baltic Sea region.
Separatist authorities in the Luhansk region reported an increase in Ukrainian shelling along the tense line of contact, describing it as a “large-scale provocation.” Separatist official Rodion Miroshnik said rebel forces returned fire.
Ukraine disputed the claim, saying that separatists had shelled its forces, but they didn’t fire back. The Ukrainian military command charged that shells hit a kindergarten building in Stanytsia Luhanska, wounding two civilians, and cut power supply to half of the town.
Back in the United States, a Qunnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that 55% of Americans believe the tensions between Russia and Ukraine will lead to war, while 30% did not.
Fifty-seven percent of those polled said the U.S. should not send troops into Ukraine, but a majority of Americans - 54% - support Biden's decision to deploy thousands of troops to eastern Europe to support NATO allies.
This is a developing story. Check back later for later updates.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.