AUSTIN Texas -- It's looking more likely that El Niño will develop later this year, and an El Niño watch has been issued with the latest outlook from NOAA. 

The phenomenon of warming and cooling along the equatorial Pacific Ocean has been connected to our weather here in North America.

At last look, we were in a neutral state or the "La Nada" phase of the El Niño cycle, and forecasters expect these conditions to continue through the end of summer. "El Niño" is know as the warm phase of the El Niño cylce, and is associated with a warm band of water that develops across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The chance that El Niño will develop by the fall is now at 50 percent, and even greater at 65 percent by winter 2018-2019. 

Over the past month or so water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been near average, with the exception of the western Pacific, where water temperatures are running above average. The change across the eastern Pacific from early May to early June has been a gradual increase in temperature. NOAA noted that the buildup of heat across the tropical Pacific and the sub-surface temperatures indicate that El Niño conditions become most likely during the late fall or winter. 

An update from forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center at the beginning of June continues to show computer models indicating a warming trend across the equatorial Pacific and the likely return of El Niño by late year. 

The impact to our weather? If an El Niño pattern does emerge by the fall, this could curb the Atlantic hurricane season. Climate tells us that during an El Niño pattern, strong upper level winds develop over the Atlantic, resulting in less than favorable conditions for hurricanes and tropical systems. Winter in Texas? During an El Niño pattern, the jet stream pattern shifts over the U.S. and can result in a wetter than average winter across the South, including Texas. Also during this time, temperatures usually trend cooler than average across Texas. 

At this time it's too early to tell how strong or when exactly an El Niño pattern will develop, but conditions are hinting at favorable development by winter, so check back with us for updates!

For more information:
NOAA El Niño page